Biofuel output set to climb nearly 70% by 2030, study warns of land and food risks
A new study says global biofuel production could rise almost 70% by 2030, with feedstock land needs potentially doubling and raising food security and deforestation concerns.
Global biofuel production is on course to rise by almost 70% between 2025 and 2030, according to a study that links the expected jump to higher blending mandates adopted by major economies after the energy crisis set off by the Iran war.
The research was carried out jointly by Chatham House, a London-based think tank, and the Forest Stewardship Council, a non-profit certification body.
Biofuels such as ethanol are derived from a variety of organic feedstocks, though they are most commonly made from food crops or animal feed. Blended into gasoline or diesel, they become more attractive as fossil fuel prices climb.
Since the Iran war broke out, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and the United States, along with the European Union, have either proposed or put in place higher biofuel blending mandates.
If every proposed mandate is carried out in full, the authors estimate that the land required to grow biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030 relative to 2023. That would mean an extra 36 million hectares — an area roughly the size of Germany.
The study's authors caution that the pace of the mandate increases carries substantial risks, because demand for feedstocks may outstrip the speed at which environmental safeguards, certification systems, land-use planning and enforcement can be put in place.
They also warn that prioritizing short-term energy security could come at the cost of greater food insecurity over the medium term, and that any further shock, such as extreme weather, could sharply affect food prices.
Feedstocks grown on degraded land or between crop seasons can help curb land degradation and even restore land, the authors note, but they add that this is generally not the case for conventional, or first-generation, biofuels. Those are made from food and feed crops including corn and sugarcane, while second-generation, or advanced, biofuels come from organic residues and waste materials such as used cooking oil.
According to the authors, producing feedstocks for first-generation biofuels tends to have net negative effects on land degradation, food security and water use.
Market prices reflect the pressure. Crude oil has gained nearly 40% since the Iran war began in late February, while sugar and corn prices have risen by about 20%.