Global food system better prepared for 'super' El Nino, but risks remain

The global food system is far better equipped to handle a 'super' El Nino than in past decades, thanks to near-record inventories, technological advances, and the emergence of major new exporters such as Brazil and Russia. World farm production has outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s, driven by higher-yielding crop varieties, increased fertiliser use, and improved irrigation and crop protection methods.

"Even during drought conditions, better irrigation management and crop science mean we can still produce marketable yields," said Andrew Whitelaw of Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3. "The potential impact on global food supplies and prices exists, but our improved preparedness means the disruptions are much less severe than they would have been in previous decades."

El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, typically brings dryness to much of Asia and boosts rainfall across the Americas. This year's event has already disrupted crop planting across large parts of Asia, including India, Southeast Asia, and Australia. India is battling a deficient monsoon, while drier weather looms in Australia's key wheat-growing regions and crops in Indonesia and Thailand are suffering from lack of moisture.

The outlook could worsen, as the El Nino is expected to intensify in the fourth quarter and early next year. "Expectations are that it will be one of the strongest on record, or the strongest the world has ever seen, and that means the big impact of dryness has yet to come," said Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist at satellite data firm SkyFi.

In past severe El Nino episodes, such as 1997-98 and 2015-16, production of key crops was slashed, fuelling food shortages and inflation. Sugar and palm oil prices jumped after drought cut output in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while tightening rice supplies prompted Southeast Asian producers to curb exports. Drought also reduced Australian wheat exports and forced southern African countries to boost corn imports.

This time, however, the system is more resilient. Global grain inventories are near record levels. India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, has so much rice that it is exhausting storage for stockpiles equivalent to more than a year of total global exports. Nearly half of the world's ample wheat stocks are held by China, providing a reserve that could curb import demand if drought dents production in key supplier Australia. Global palm oil stocks also stand near historic highs.

The rise of new export hubs has added significant supplies. Brazil has become the world's biggest soybean supplier, with exports climbing more than 13-fold since 1997/98, while Russia's wheat shipments jumped to 48 million tons last year from roughly 1 million tons in 1997/98.

Technology has also played a crucial role. Drought-tolerant corn hybrids are now widely adopted across Africa and the Americas, and heat- and drought-tolerant wheat varieties have gained ground in India and Australia. Short-duration rice varieties help farmers in South and Southeast Asia cope with erratic monsoon rains. Farmers now have access to satellite-based crop monitoring, seasonal climate forecasts, high-resolution soil moisture maps, and GPS-guided fertiliser application. AI-powered advisory platforms integrate weather forecasts, soil data, and crop information to provide timely recommendations.

"Governments have much better information than in the past and are able to prepare earlier," said Maximo Torero, Chief Economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. "Our forecasting and market transparency have improved."

Despite these gains, experts warn that wars in the Middle East and the Black Sea region temper some of the optimism. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, which began in February, has disrupted global fuel and fertiliser supplies. "Much will depend on how conditions evolve during the second half of 2026, particularly given the reduced use of agricultural inputs caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis and higher fertiliser prices," Torero said.