Global poll finds rising trust in institutions, unease over US and China leadership

A survey of more than 35,000 people across 34 countries has found broad backing for international cooperation and growing confidence in global institutions, even as many respondents expressed unease about the United States or China taking leading roles in world affairs.

The poll, commissioned by the Rockefeller Foundation and carried out between July 21 and August 5, painted a bleak picture of the past year. Nearly 70% of those questioned said the world had deteriorated, and only 38% expected their national economies to improve over the next five years.

Optimism fell sharply in two of the largest economies. In India it dropped 26 percentage points to 50%, while in China it declined 16 points to 56%.

Despite the gloom, 57% said countries should work together on global challenges such as security, even if that means compromising on some national interests — up from 55% a year earlier.

The findings come ahead of the United Nations General Assembly in New York and follow nearly seven months of war in the Middle East that has disrupted energy markets, slowed growth and fuelled inflation. The conflict began after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, followed by Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that had carried 20% of the world's oil. The fighting has since spread to countries including Lebanon, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, adding further pressure on oil prices.

Respondents were not comfortable with either the United States or China as a global leader, and 61% supported countries working together without the participation of the world's two largest economies.

Canada drew the highest level of comfort for a leading role in world affairs at 60%, followed by Japan at 58% and Australia at 55%. The European Union and Britain followed closely at 55% and 54%, while the United Nations stood at 52%. Just 39% were comfortable with the United States taking a leading role and 37% with China. Russia fared worse, at 26%.

Eric Pelofsky, vice president of the Rockefeller Foundation, said the results showed that the "middle powers" approach championed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had real credibility globally. Carney has described the war in the Middle East as a failure of the global order.

"It reflects a deep erosion in global leadership" for the United States, Pelofsky said. "People are discussing solutions to global problems and are no longer asking what do the Americans think. That's a gut punch."

Views diverged between developing and advanced economies. In developing countries, 53% were comfortable with China leading, against 23% in wealthier nations. Russia showed a 27-point gap and the United States 17 points. The question was not asked in 2025.

Trust in international institutions rose over the past year. Confidence in the World Health Organization climbed to 69% from 61%, while the United Nations rose to 62% from 58%. The World Bank, International Monetary Fund and International Criminal Court, which all received failing grades in last year's survey, recorded the biggest gains. Trust in the World Bank rose to 55% from 46%, the IMF edged to 51% from 43% and the ICC scored 54%, up from 48%. The World Trade Organization reached 57%, up from 50%.

Excluding assessments of their own country, 42% of respondents viewed Russia as a major threat, compared with 34% for the United States and 30% for China. Russia was the most widely named country of concern in 14 countries, with the highest rates in Europe. The United States was seen as the greatest threat in 15 countries, with the highest percentages in Indonesia at 73%, Brazil at 59%, Mexico at 58% and Turkey at 57%.