GOP Shifts Senate Strategy as Georgia and North Carolina Hopes Fade

With five weeks remaining before the midterm elections, Republicans are recalibrating their strategy to retain control of the Senate, shifting focus away from Georgia and North Carolina as prospects in those states dim.

The party has not entirely abandoned the Southern battlegrounds, which President Donald Trump carried narrowly in 2024, but is directing greater resources to states viewed as more competitive. Republicans are now spending heavily to defend Texas, and Trump is scheduled to campaign for the Republican incumbent in Ohio — both states the president won comfortably two years ago.

Some Republicans have grown more vocal in criticizing Trump, arguing he squandered an opportunity to hold off Democrats more comfortably. Their grievances include the president's handling of the unpopular war in Iran, his dismissal of high fuel prices, and late engagement in midterm campaigns.

In Georgia, Republican Senate campaign leaders are looking past businessman Mike Collins' challenge to first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, according to two Republican Senate campaign sources familiar with leadership's thinking. Ossoff has vastly outpaced Collins in fundraising, and Collins has struggled to expand his support beyond the state's Republican base.

Despite Senate Majority Leader John Thune's two-day campaign and fundraising visit to Georgia this month, some local party leaders were openly pessimistic. "He just doesn't have what it takes to beat Ossoff," said Tim Waters, Peach County Republican Party chair. "It's hard enough trying to beat an incumbent, and you have the president of the same party in a tough midterm, right? I don't think he's got much of a shot."

Ossoff has spent $57 million on advertising with $13 million reserved through the election, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. While outside groups aligned with Collins have spent more than $52 million, Collins' campaign confirmed it had no advertising time immediately reserved.

In North Carolina, retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis stopped short of saying GOP candidate Michael Whatley's chances had vanished but implied it was time to reassess spending against Democratic former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper. "We've got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance," Tillis told reporters Monday. "You've got to change your posture going into the last — we've got 36 days."

Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has been a favorite of Trump, who campaigned for him this month. But enthusiasm for Trump appears to have fallen even among some Republicans who voted for him, said Paul Shoemaker, a North Carolina Republican strategist and Tillis adviser. "There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration's failure to address the economic concerns of voters," Shoemaker said. "The blue-collar, working-class voters that Donald Trump brought to the Republican Party is the one that's being most impacted by higher energy prices, and it's dampened their enthusiasm to turn out and vote."

Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP's leadership super PAC, has $19.5 million in advertising booked in North Carolina, having spent $30.4 million to date. Michele Woodhouse, former Republican chair for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District and a Trump supporter, predicted Cooper would win. "Roy Cooper, for Republicans, is the worst Democrat candidate who could be running for this seat," she said. "He's never lost in a statewide race. He's very popular."

In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, the Senate Leadership Fund is spending more than in any state it set out to defend early in the year. The group this month pumped more than $100 million into advertising in Texas to back state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a race viewed as very competitive.

Trump endorsed Paxton over four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary. GOP campaign leaders considered Paxton a potential drain on resources because he has faced legal, ethical and personal questions, including a felony indictment, impeachment charges and extramarital affairs, though he was never convicted. Senate GOP leaders had suggested Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., would carry a significant portion of the advertising load after Paxton defeated Cornyn in the May runoff. Neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor SLF had included Texas spending in its midterm budget. As of Monday, MAGA Inc. has committed more than $20 million to ads supporting Paxton this month, compared with $124 million from SLF.

Should Democrats win North Carolina and Texas, they would need to win only two of the remaining competitive Republican-held seats — in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio — while holding competitive Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire to capture the majority. Democrats must win a net of four seats to reclaim the chamber.

Trump plans to visit Ohio on Saturday to support Sen. Jon Husted as he fends off a challenge from Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown. The president plans to campaign with Husted in Vandalia, near Dayton in southwest Ohio.

Senate Republican campaign leaders have complained that spiking gas prices, a result of the seven-month-long war with Iran, are among the issues weighing against candidates. Campaigning with Whatley last week, Trump called higher fuel prices "a very inexpensive price to pay" for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Though gas prices are near historic highs, they remain below the nationwide record set in 2022.

The issue has prompted some candidates, such as Iowa's GOP Senate nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson, to speak out. "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran," she said last week. South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds dismissed the idea that the Republican majority was slipping away but suggested senators needed to act on fuel prices. "We have to stay focused on the fact that we know that gas prices are too high, and diesel is way too high," he said.