US claims on Hormuz oil flows clash with vessel tracking data
US officials say Middle East oil exports are near pre-war levels, but independent vessel data shows a much lower picture.
A sharp discrepancy has emerged between US government claims about oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz and the numbers compiled by independent vessel-tracking services.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on social media that the seven-day average for crude leaving the strait has reached almost 9 million barrels per day (bpd), and that total Middle East oil flows, including pipeline exports, are around 15 million bpd. That would represent roughly 75% of pre-conflict volumes.
But data from Kpler shows crude exports via the strait were just 2.77 million bpd in the week starting July 27, falling to 1.74 million bpd the following week. Even the strongest week since the conflict began, in late June, saw only 6.98 million bpd.
LSEG Oil Research, which tracks cargoes that are loaded, underway, or discharged, puts Middle East crude exports at 9.33 million bpd for the first 12 days of August, down from 12.35 million bpd in July. Kpler's total for the week starting August 3 was 9.53 million bpd, with a four-week average of 12.26 million bpd.
Before the war, Kpler recorded Middle East crude exports of 18.7 million bpd in the three months to end-February.
Import data also fails to support the higher figure. July arrivals from the Middle East spiked to 13.27 million bpd, largely because tankers that had been stuck in the strait were able to leave during a brief US-Iran ceasefire. But that was still well below the 18.71 million bpd average before the conflict, and April imports had fallen to a record low of 9.26 million bpd.
The gap between official claims and tracking data is between 3 million and 5 million bpd. Three explanations are possible: the tracking services are missing clandestine shipments; the US is miscounting, possibly by double-counting ship-to-ship transfers; or the administration is deliberately inflating figures to support a political narrative.
The first possibility could be tested if the Energy Department shared vessel names and cargo details. The second is the most plausible, according to analysts. The third would be more troubling, given the administration's record of questionable claims about the war.
A clearer picture should emerge in the coming weeks as tankers that loaded in August reach their destinations, and import figures from Asian buyers are published.