Hormuz traffic dips as Iran warns of retaliation against US strikes
Commodity ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell after Iran warned of retaliation for potential US attacks, while Bab el-Mandeb saw increased traffic.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies, showed signs of slowing at the start of the week. The dip follows a warning from Tehran that it would retaliate against any fresh US military action in the region.
Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler recorded seven commodity vessels transiting the strait on Monday, down from eight the previous day. The reduction comes amid heightened concerns that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including American oil and gas interests, could become targets in any escalation.
The cautious movement through Hormuz contrasts with a notable uptick in traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another vital chokepoint for global trade. Kpler data showed 29 commodity vessels passed through that waterway on Monday, a sharp rise from 17 on the preceding day.
Market analysts are already factoring in prolonged disruption. Goldman Sachs has revised upward its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027, citing expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions will persist into next year.
It is worth noting that the vessel counts may not capture the full picture, as some ships are believed to be navigating these straits with their transponders switched off, a practice that would exclude them from the tracking data.