Houthi Seizure of Mokha and Perim Island Sharpens Risks at Bab el-Mandeb

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have captured the Red Sea port of Mokha and a strategic island off the country's coast, a swift advance that places their forces at the edge of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical passage for global trade.

Mokha fell on Thursday, and on Friday the Houthis took Mayun, also known as Perim, according to two officials. The island sits in the narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and onward to Asia.

The advance has revived attention on the strait's role as a commercial artery and on the risks to shipping moving through it. The Houthis have sought to reassure shipowners that vessels unconnected to their embargo on Saudi-linked traffic remain safe, though their record of attacks has already reshaped the route.

Houthi strikes on shipping through Bab el-Mandeb began in late 2023 over Israel's war in Gaza, prompting many operators to abandon the passage on safety grounds. Overall traffic remains roughly 60 percent below pre-war levels, even as the corridor stays important for goods moving between Asia and Europe.

The strait had also become a pressure valve for Saudi crude. When Iran restricted most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh increased shipments through a desert pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, from where tankers could exit via Bab el-Mandeb and sail east to Asia. That arrangement helped keep global oil prices in check alongside other workarounds, including U.S. military escorts through Hormuz and a UAE pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

Alternative routes restored about two-thirds of the roughly 15 million barrels that had transited Hormuz before the war, easing economic pressure in the United States ahead of politically sensitive midterm elections. But Houthi threats have weighed on Saudi exports in the Red Sea. Red Sea oil loadings fell from 3.8 million barrels per day to 2.2 million in August, according to the International Energy Agency, while overall Saudi supply dropped 2.3 million barrels per day to 6 million, the lowest in three decades.

"Saudi shipping has largely routed away from this risk anyway," said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List. He said the Houthi advance "doesn't change the immediate risk profile" because Saudi and Israeli shipping is already high risk, but it raises the question of whether the group will widen its threats if attacked further. "It puts the Houthis in a strong position to take further control if they want to," he said.

With Bab el-Mandeb under threat, Saudi tankers have turned northwest from Yanbu toward the Suez Canal. Vessels too large for the canal have offloaded at Ain Sokhna in Egypt for pipeline transport to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, where the oil is reloaded. About 70 percent of Yanbu crude exports now move that way, by pipeline or tanker, according to Lloyd's.

The detour is costly and slow for Asian buyers. Ships must cross the Mediterranean, pass Gibraltar and round the Cape of Good Hope. The Suez route allows Riyadh to redirect as much as 3 million barrels per day, but the longer voyage more than doubles transit time to destinations such as South Korea, from 24 days to 54, according to Victoria Grabenwöger, a senior research analyst at energy data firm Kpler. Charter costs, already tens of thousands of dollars a day in normal times, have in some cases exceeded $100,000 per day during the current energy turmoil.

Meanwhile, heightened attacks in the Strait of Hormuz this week have suspended use of the U.S. escort route. Iran said it struck 10 ships there on Wednesday after the United States hit five Iranian tankers.