Houthi Red Sea Advance Pushes Gulf States Toward Talks With Iran

The Houthi seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coastline is shifting the balance of power in the Gulf, bolstering Iran's position and leaving Saudi Arabia and its neighbours to weigh rising costs against the prospect of accommodation with Tehran.

By taking ground overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, the Iran-aligned group has opened a second pressure point beyond the Strait of Hormuz, putting at risk the Saudi oil exports that Riyadh has diverted through Red Sea ports. That rerouting had already become central to Saudi strategy after the war effectively closed the Strait on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula. On Friday, the kingdom shut the pipeline carrying that oil after it came under attack.

Regional officials and analysts describe the logic as direct: with the Houthis threatening Red Sea shipping and Iran able to squeeze Hormuz, Tehran and its ally can push up oil prices and inflation while reducing the region's confidence that Washington will resolve the crisis. The aim, they say, is to force Gulf states to choose between enduring economic pain and engaging Iran to protect trade and energy flows.

"The Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb is a game changer," Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges said, adding that it gives the group far greater geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade.

That calculation may become visible on Monday, when Gulf foreign ministers meet Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in Oman under an Omani-Iranian effort to secure a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through Hormuz. A Gulf source said Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan will attend, with Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq also expected. A Western diplomat said Kuwait would take part, while Bahrain would not.

"It is a meeting to discuss the various proposals on the table," the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Any agreement, the source added, would still have to move forward within the framework of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, with Washington and Tehran needing to agree on confidence-building and sanctions. "The sequencing of things will be very important."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday he had held good talks with UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on the sidelines of the BRICS leaders' summit in New Delhi. "We agreed to put the past aside and look forward to the future, and how we can build a future together," he said. Asked whether he was concerned about the Gulf states meeting Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump said that was up to them.

The dilemma for Gulf capitals is that geography cannot be changed. Iran's position alongside the region's energy and trade arteries makes it an unavoidable player in any Gulf security equation, and the conflict triggered by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran has undone decades of diplomatic efforts to contain it.

Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said the question for Gulf states may increasingly be less whether they trust Iran than how to protect their interests and survive hostilities Washington cannot quickly end. That could push them toward parallel diplomacy with Tehran and, over time, a broader security strategy less dependent on the United States alone.

"The Gulf states are contemplating the basic reality that they might have to cut a deal with the Iranians on their own, regardless of whether they hurt American feelings or not, because America can't get them out of this quagmire," he said.

The flare-up revives a struggle predating the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Houthis, drawn from Yemen's Zaydi Shi'ite minority, fought a series of wars with Saudi Arabia before seizing Sanaa in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led intervention the following year. Despite years of air strikes and cross-border warfare, they survived, expanded their capabilities and emerged as one of Iran's most effective regional allies.

Former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller said the Houthis are not traditional proxies. "They can weaponise geography and have a dramatic impact on the international economy and on the global oil economy," he said.

One regional official described the Houthi advance as the latest step in a careful Iranian strategy. "For Iran, this is a chess game. They plan what comes next. They don't push all their buttons at the same time out of panic," the official said, adding that the Houthis are the only proxy Iranian ally with formidable operational capabilities left.

Washington's economic pressure on Iran is having an effect, but according to a Gulf source, an unintended consequence is that it is pushing America's Gulf partners to reconsider whether confrontation with Tehran is sustainable.