Houthi Advance on Red Sea Coast Threatens Saudi Oil and Rattles Global Markets
Houthi forces have expanded along Yemen's Red Sea coast, disrupting shipping and threatening Saudi oil exports, as mediation efforts struggle to gain traction.
A week after Houthi forces swept down Yemen's Red Sea coast, the Iran-backed rebels have extended their reach to a critical maritime chokepoint and put Saudi Arabia's oil exports under direct threat. The offensive — their largest territorial gain in years — has reignited a civil war that had been largely frozen since a 2022 ceasefire and pushed global fuel prices higher.
The rebels captured the port city of Mokha before taking several islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, through which roughly 12% of world trade passes in peacetime. They are now just 32 kilometers (20 miles) from Djibouti, a small African nation hosting U.S. and other military bases. Shipping traffic through Bab el-Mandeb dipped from 35 daily transits before the advance to 25, according to the maritime firm Windward, but had recovered to 45 transits by Sunday.
The Houthis are also firing at Saudi oil facilities and tankers. An attack on the kingdom's east-west pipeline, blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, has added to the pressure. Saudi Arabia said Thursday that debris from an intercepted Houthi drone killed one person and wounded two others inside the kingdom.
The advance has given Iran another potential source of leverage as the United States has begun to loosen Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. The Houthis say they are only targeting Saudi shipping, and analysts suggest they may broaden their criteria for what counts as "Saudi-linked" to increase pressure on both the kingdom and the global economy.
On the ground, heavy fighting has been reported in and around Marib, a central city in an oil-rich province of the same name. Previous Houthi offensives have failed to capture the city, which also serves as a military hub for Saudi-backed forces. The rebels also threaten Taiz, a western front line for much of the conflict. The Houthis appear to be eyeing Yemen's oil-rich east, with the Saudi-backed government and an array of forces — some of which fought each other as recently as January — the only thing standing in their way.
The United States, which bombed the Houthis under the Biden and Trump administrations, has shown no interest in getting involved this time. Washington says it has been in "constant contact" with the Saudis, a close ally and recipient of billions of dollars in American military assistance. The Houthis want Saudi Arabia to lift a long-running blockade on the territory they control.
"It is Saudi Arabia that closed the Bab el-Mandeb strait to shipping traffic to and from Yemen and imposed an unjust blockade on the country," Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis' political bureau, told The Varta Wire.
Regional mediators have sprung into action, but a diplomatic agreement appears unlikely without a breakthrough in the wider Iran war. Iran wants the U.S. to lift a blockade and sanctions that have devastated its economy, while Washington seeks the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a deal to roll back Tehran's nuclear program. Neither side has shown signs of budging since a preliminary agreement crumbled over the summer.
Last weekend, Oman hosted a meeting between U.S. and Houthi representatives, according to a Houthi official and another individual familiar with the talks. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently visited Egypt, which has served as a regional mediator. A Turkish government official said this week that Ankara was in talks with Iran and the United Arab Emirates to try to lower tensions. The Houthi attacks are the first test of a new defense pact among Saudi Arabia, NATO member Turkey and nuclear power Pakistan, but officials from Turkey and Pakistan say they have not received a Saudi request for support.
The humanitarian toll is mounting. The U.N. humanitarian office, OCHA, says eight civilians have been killed and 32 wounded in the latest fighting, and an estimated 125,000 people have fled their homes. The Health Ministry in the Saudi-backed government says the Houthis have killed around 150 civilians since Sept. 3. The civil war has killed over 150,000 people and at times pushed the country to the brink of famine.
Yemen was the poorest Arab country even before the conflict, and widespread hunger has persisted in recent years because of the fighting and the Saudi-led blockade. The Houthis' detention of U.N. and aid workers has hampered international assistance in the territories they control. Experts say the rebels have struggled to pay civil servants, leading to some unrest, and have diverted much of their tax revenues to their military wing.
OCHA says only 20% of its humanitarian appeal for Yemen has been funded, warning that "millions risk losing access to food, healthcare, nutrition, water and protection services."
"The needs are extremely high right now," said Sara Ahmed, a supervisor with Doctors Without Borders in Mokha. Doctors are working under difficult conditions to keep essential services running despite hearing airstrikes, she said.
Mahida Ahmed fled the fighting in Mokha and is now sheltering in a displacement camp in Aden, where the Saudi-backed government is headquartered. She said she left in a hurry, with her children but no belongings, while her husband is still stranded in Mokha.
"This war has been completely devastating for us," she said.