Houthi-Saudi Clashes Threaten to Derail Yemen's Fragile Truce

A new spiral of violence between Yemen's Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia is threatening to unravel the fragile truce that has held since 2022, raising fears of a return to large-scale conflict.

The United Nations' special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned that the country now faces a greater risk of renewed large-scale fighting than at any point since the truce was brokered in April 2022. He cautioned that the escalation could jeopardize the gains of the ceasefire and draw Yemen into a broader regional confrontation with devastating consequences for its people. Grundberg said he has been engaged in intensive talks with Yemeni parties and regional governments to avert further escalation.

The current cycle of tit-for-tat attacks began on July 13, when a Saudi airstrike hit the runway of Sanaa's airport, preventing the landing of an Iranian flight carrying a high-ranking Houthi delegation. The flight, operated by the U.S.-sanctioned Mahan Air, was an attempt by the Houthis to challenge the Saudi-led coalition's decade-long control over Yemeni airspace, which requires prior permission for flights.

The rebels, apparently emboldened by the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, were seeking political and economic concessions from Saudi Arabia, including the lifting of a blockade on territories they control. They turned down an offer from the internationally recognized government to facilitate the delegation's travel on a non-Iranian airline. The Saudi-led coalition eventually allowed the flight to land in the Houthi-controlled city of Hodeida, as part of an Omani-led effort to avert escalation.

Analysts see the flight saga as part of Iran's broader strategy. By activating the Yemeni front, Tehran is signaling that attacks on Iran can produce costs elsewhere, particularly for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, said Yasmeen al-Eryani of the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies.

Following the Sanaa airport strike, the Houthis attacked Abha airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia and announced a blockade on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. They also targeted Saudi vessels and oil facilities, adding further disruption to the global economy. The Saudi-led coalition responded with strikes on Hodeida and Kamaran island, and has reinforced Yemeni troops along front lines in preparation for a potential ground offensive.

Anticipating such an offensive, the rebels launched dozens of missiles and drones on military camps in central and southern Yemen, killing dozens of troops and civilians. They also attacked the Red Sea city of Mokha, severely damaging its crucial port, which remains under the control of the internationally recognized government.

The Houthis have faced growing internal challenges stemming from deteriorating living conditions in their territories. A prolonged situation of 'no war, no peace' has raised public expectations for tangible improvements, generating internal pressure on the group, said Yemeni researcher Salah Ali Salah. The rebels have sought to blame Saudi Arabia for its blockade and framed the escalation as an extension of the Yemen war, rather than a new front in the Iran war.

The conflict, which began in March 2015 after the Houthis took control of Sanaa, has turned Yemen into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The 2022 truce ended major fighting and stopped Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which quit the coalition over a year ago.

Omani back-channel talks have focused on averting the collapse of the truce but have yet to produce a compromise. Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group said the escalation reflects a shift in Houthi priorities, from seeking confidence-building measures to clearly casting the conflict as being about Yemen's sovereignty over its airspace, ports, and territorial waters. By taking direct action to reassert this view, the Houthis have raised the political stakes and made future compromise considerably more difficult.