ICICI Bank sees gold consolidating in 2026, rising to $5,000 by H1 2027
ICICI Bank projects gold at $4,200–4,600/oz for the rest of 2026 and $4,600–5,000/oz in H1 2027, citing easing US real yields and structural demand.
Gold prices are likely to stay range-bound at elevated levels through the rest of 2026 before pushing higher in the first half of 2027, according to a research report from ICICI Bank. The bank expects the metal to trade between USD 4,200 and USD 4,600 per ounce over the remainder of this year, with a marginal upside bias in H1 2027 that could take it to USD 4,600–5,000 per ounce.
The medium-term outlook is underpinned by investment demand, sustained central bank purchases and gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical, financial and policy uncertainty, the report said. It also pointed to concerns over the long-term sustainability of US fiscal deficits and high public debt, along with continued central bank diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets, as structural supports.
Gold has corrected sharply in September after gaining around 9 per cent in August, losing nearly 8 per cent during the month so far. The bank attributed the pullback to a more hawkish repricing of US monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns, higher oil prices and stronger-than-expected labour market data. It added that these near-term pressures may not be enough to reverse the broader strength in bullion, and that an easing of global energy pressures could tilt prices upward.
Demand-side indicators remain firm. Gold ETFs recorded USD 17.8 billion of inflows in August, taking third-quarter gold ETF demand to 144.7 tonnes, while the People's Bank of China bought 20 tonnes of gold in August — its largest monthly purchase since October 2023.
For India, the bank expects local gold prices to be driven largely by global bullion prices, with the rupee adding another source of volatility. It retained its forecast for domestic gold prices at Rs 1.40 lakh–Rs 1.60 lakh per 10 grams through the remainder of 2026. Domestic jewellery demand remains constrained by elevated prices, although wedding demand has stayed relatively resilient and festive and wedding activity is expected to provide some support. Gold imports fell to USD 2.3 billion in August from USD 4.2 billion in July, while Indian gold ETF inflows rose to Rs 26 billion in August.