Heatwave in Europe prompts IGC to trim global wheat and corn forecasts
The IGC lowered its 2026/27 world wheat and corn forecasts, citing heat damage in Europe and Black Sea export disruptions.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has reduced its projection for the 2026/27 global wheat harvest, citing deteriorating crop conditions in Europe and Britain due to persistent heat.
In its latest monthly report, the intergovernmental body cut its world wheat output estimate by 4 million metric tons, bringing it to 817 million tons. The EU forecast was lowered for the second consecutive month, with the UK crop now seen at 12.0 million tons, down from 13.5 million, and the EU estimate trimmed to 133.9 million from 135.7 million. Russia's wheat outlook was also reduced to 88.4 million tons from 89.8 million.
The IGC also trimmed its global corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 1.305 billion tons. The EU corn crop was cut sharply to 48.5 million tons from 53.8 million, though this was partly offset by upward revisions for the United States (to 406.7 million from 405.9 million) and Africa (to 97.8 million from 96.4 million).
The report highlighted that deep-sea grain exports from Russia's Novorossiysk and from Ukraine have effectively stalled amid heightened security risks. Shipping suspensions have mainly affected wheat flows, with exports since mid-July estimated to be about 4 million tons below normal. The IGC noted that the market impact has been relatively restrained so far, but much depends on the duration and severity of the disruptions.