Monsoon Withdrawal to Begin Around September 19, Rain to Persist

The southwest monsoon is expected to begin its retreat from northwest India around September 19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, even as rainfall continues across several parts of the country.

Conditions are turning favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from some areas of west Rajasthan around that date, the department said. The normal onset of withdrawal over northwest India is September 17, with a standard deviation of four days. Last year, the retreat began on September 14.

Before the withdrawal sets in, the region is likely to experience thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds. The weather activity is expected to be linked to a low-pressure system over north Gujarat, while adjoining parts of Rajasthan are likely to remain under monsoon influence for another two to three days.

Rainfall has been forecast over western Rajasthan until September 16, while monsoon activity is expected to continue over eastern Rajasthan until September 20. Widespread rain has also been predicted over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab until September 18.

This year, the monsoon has remained below normal across the country, with strengthening El Niño conditions adding to concerns. All-India monthly rainfall was 35.4 per cent below normal in June, followed by a 1 per cent surplus in July and a 13.8 per cent deficit in August. September has so far recorded a 15 per cent rainfall deficit.

With about a fortnight left in the four-month monsoon season, IMD data showed that nearly 43 per cent of the country remained rainfall deficient. The season is most likely to end with significantly below-average rainfall across much of the southern peninsular region.

Other areas expected to record substantial deficits include Goa (-16 per cent), Haryana (-23 per cent), Punjab (-40 per cent), Bihar (-35 per cent), Rajasthan (-25 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (-42 per cent), Manipur (-42 per cent), Assam (-25 per cent) and Meghalaya (-59 per cent). The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to be an exception, with rainfall likely to remain closer to normal.