IMD Forecasts Below-Normal September Rainfall After Hottest August on Record

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across the country for September, with precipitation expected to be at least 9% short of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. The announcement on Monday comes after India recorded its hottest August since 1901, with mean temperatures reaching 28.01°C, about 0.67°C above normal, and the average minimum temperature hitting a record 24.36°C.

While most regions are expected to remain drier than usual, the IMD noted that parts of northwest, northeast, east, and east-central India, along with isolated areas of southeast peninsular India, could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

September typically accounts for about a fifth of the June-September monsoon rainfall, less than July's 32% and August's 29% share. As of August 31, cumulative monsoon rainfall stood at roughly 14% below normal, with central India in surplus but the northwest, east, northeast, and south peninsula all recording deficits. The shortfall was most pronounced in the east, northeast, and southern peninsula.

August itself was notably dry, with India receiving 213.3 mm of rain — the seventh-lowest since 2001. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra attributed the conditions to the ongoing El Niño, which dries the atmosphere and raises temperatures. However, the month was not uniformly dry, as repeated low-pressure systems brought heavy rain across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and parts of central and eastern India.

Four low-pressure systems — precursors to cyclonic storms, mostly originating in the Bay of Bengal — persisted for a combined 26 days in August, substantially longer than the climatological average of 16.3 days. Their rainfall activity, however, remained largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Frequent Western Disturbances from the Mediterranean also interacted with the monsoon circulation, concentrating intense rainfall over eastern, east-central, and parts of northwestern India rather than enabling a widespread monsoon revival.

For September, the IMD expects above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most of the country, pointing to a warm and relatively dry end to the monsoon season. The IMD's models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify during the remainder of the 2026 southwest monsoon season.

The forecast follows the IMD's July 31 outlook for August, which had predicted below-normal rainfall over much of the country — a projection that largely matched observations, except over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southeast peninsular India, where rainfall exceeded expectations due to persistent low-pressure systems.