India Has Made Its Overtures; Ball Now in Dhaka's Court, Says Ex-Envoy

Relations between India and Bangladesh have entered a difficult phase, and a former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka believes the initiative for a reset now rests with Bangladesh. Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, who once headed India's mission in Dhaka, offered his assessment of the turbulence and its possible trajectory.

He described Bangladesh as a vital neighbour of nearly 180 million people, sharing a 4,096-km border, whose politics have been marked by turbulence since 1975, when Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was killed along with his family. In his view, the two years under Muhammad Yunus were disastrous: criminals and terrorists were freed, minority communities suffered, and the Jamaat-e-Islami, which had taken over the student movement, dictated policy. The election that followed was flawed, he argued, because the Awami League was not allowed to participate. The present government, he added, is under heavy pressure from worsening economic conditions, with shortages of electricity, cooking gas and fuel.

On the current Bangladesh Nationalist Party government, Chakravarty cautioned against comparisons with the Khaleda Zia era. He characterised the BNP as a mosaic of business, pro-Pakistan and Jamaat-e-Islami lobbies, with only a few subdued voices favouring good relations with India. The presence of Sheikh Hasina in exile in India has become a factor in bilateral ties. He suggested that intense discussions took place in Dhaka and that an anti-Indian lobby prevailed, preventing Tarique Rahman from visiting India for the BRICS summit.

India, he stressed, cannot be wished away by Bangladesh or replaced by any other country, given shared civilisational heritage, the millions of Bangladeshis who come to India for medical treatment, and the scale of trade and connectivity. New Delhi's approach, he noted, has been to deal with whichever government is in power, as it has with military dictators, caretaker governments and elected governments, without halting people-to-people, business-to-business or educational exchanges.

On Sheikh Hasina, he said India had good reason to welcome her, and that Bangladesh's President, a senior BNP leader, had indicated her stay in Delhi should not affect bilateral ties. Extradition, he noted, is a judicial process that Dhaka has not initiated. If Hasina chooses to return, India will not stop her, but New Delhi would want to know how she would be treated, given that groups such as the Jamaat-e-Islami want her killed on arrival. He felt India could have advised her before her August 5 address, but noted the difficulty of restraining anyone in the age of social media, and that she is neither in custody nor in prison in India.

Repairing ties, he said, is definitely possible but requires two hands to clap. India has made enough overtures; it is now up to Dhaka. Bangladesh could choose to keep the relationship low-key, and India would focus on the basic pillars of the relationship. Bangladesh's main problem is economic, and India is providing fuel and electricity to the extent it can.

On security, his worry is the release of a large number of Islamists and terrorists who are reorganising. He cited a UN report on the revival of Al-Qaeda in Bangladesh and the country's history of Islamic extremism, which Hasina had managed to control. A revival of such extremism would spill over into India and be exploited by Pakistan.

On water, he noted that the two countries share 54 rivers but have only one agreement, the Ganga water treaty, due to expire in December. The Teesta agreement did not happen because West Bengal objected. The immediate issue is the Ganga treaty, where hard bargaining lies ahead. Bangladesh may seek more guaranteed flows, which India may find difficult to accept, as per capita water availability is not growing amid climate change and shrinking glaciers, while demand rises.

On external actors, he observed that China did not recognise Bangladesh until about 1977 and first gained a foothold through the army, supplying large amounts of free arms. Around 80% of Bangladesh's military hardware now comes from China, which is also its largest trading partner, and Bangladesh has joined the Belt and Road initiative. China seeks a corridor into the Bay of Bengal, having one through conflict-ridden Myanmar, and may seek another through Myanmar into Bangladesh, which the Americans do not want. Pakistan, he said, has a one-point foreign policy of harming India and wants Bangladesh to join hands with it, though he doubted Bangladesh would fall into that trap, as it would sour relations with India.