India-New Zealand FTA to take effect on 20 October as forecasters lift growth outlook

India and New Zealand have finalised a free-trade agreement that will come into force on 20 October, opening the New Zealand market to Indian exporters without duties across all tariff lines. In return, India has offered concessions on roughly 70% of its tariff lines, which account for about 95% of the current bilateral trade value.

New Zealand's tariffs on Indian goods presently range from zero to 10%, with an average of 2.2%. Bilateral trade between the two countries stood at about $1.16 billion in 2025-26. Over the past nine years, India had converted a trade deficit with New Zealand into a surplus, but exports to the country fell 20% in 2025-26, led by petroleum products, pushing India back into deficit.

Growth forecasts revised upward

Global rating agencies and multilateral organisations have raised their projections for India's economic growth in 2026-27, with four of five now expecting at least 7%. S&P lifted its forecast to 7% from 6.6% in its June outlook, and Fitch raised its estimate to 6.9% from 6.4%. The OECD now projects 7.1%, up from 6.3% in June, while the Asian Development Bank raised its figure to 7% from 6.6% in July. Moody's had already increased its forecast by a full percentage point to 7% last week, from 6% in May.

The agencies pointed to the economy's resilience amid the US-Iran war and its effects on energy supplies and prices, as well as stronger-than-expected growth of 7.8% in the June quarter.

Banks told to prepare for cash demand

Banks have been instructed to ensure adequate cash at ATMs from 15 October, when a fee will be levied on select UPI transactions for the first time. The Reserve Bank of India and the finance ministry have asked lenders to prepare for a possible rise in cash demand. The 0.4% charge on specified person-to-merchant UPI transactions above ₹2,000, capped at ₹300, has raised concerns about a shift towards cash.

Although digital payments have expanded rapidly, currency in circulation has continued to grow since demonetisation in November 2016. Between 31 March 2025 and 31 August 2026, cash with the public rose by about 16%, after single-digit increases in each of the previous three financial years.

In numbers

• $278 billion: the cash OpenAI expects to burn between 2026 and 2030, with revenues projected to rise from $36 billion to $350 billion.
• 5.7 times: the extent to which the ₹22,562 crore National Stock Exchange issue was oversubscribed; the retail portion was subscribed 1.39 times and the employee portion 2.4 times.
• 26.7%: the Air India Group's passenger share in the domestic segment in August, up 2.7 percentage points from July, while market leader IndiGo's share fell from 67.4% to 65%.
• 11,000: the international runs milestone crossed by Smriti Mandhana during the Asian Games, making her the first female cricketer to do so; Mithali Raj is next with 10,868 runs.
• 5-10 trillion: the number of parameters Alibaba plans for its next Qwen artificial intelligence models, up from 2.4 trillion in its current model.

AMD joins trillion-dollar club

American chipmaker AMD crossed a market capitalisation of $1 trillion for the first time this week, becoming the 16th member of the club. PetroChina briefly touched the mark in 2007, but Apple was the first company to cross it permanently, in August 2018. Since then, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have joined. The group has broadened from consumer technology and software to the hardware underpinning artificial intelligence, with AMD joining Nvidia, TSMC and Broadcom. Outside tech, only Saudi Aramco, Eli Lilly and Berkshire Hathaway have reached the milestone.

Ronaldo to play on

Cristiano Ronaldo has said he will continue playing for Portugal, keeping alive his pursuit of 1,000 career goals. The 2026 World Cup was expected to be the 41-year-old's final major tournament, but he has indicated he intends to carry on. Ronaldo has 979 goals in a 24-year career, the most among male footballers for club and country, ahead of Argentina's Lionel Messi, who has 930 goals and recently retired from international football. Ronaldo's 146 goals for Portugal make him the most prolific scorer in international football.