India's Nuclear Arsenal Estimated at 190 Warheads, New Study Finds
A Federation of American Scientists study estimates India's nuclear arsenal at around 190 warheads, with more expected as new delivery systems enter service.
India is estimated to hold roughly 190 nuclear warheads, including about 30 set aside for missiles still in production, according to a new assessment by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a United States-based nonprofit policy research organisation.
The estimate, published on Wednesday in an article titled 'India's Nuclear Weapons - 2026', was prepared by Hans Kristensen, director of the FAS Nuclear Information Project. It draws on open sources, state-originating data and commercial satellite imagery.
According to the assessment, more than 160 of the warheads are intended for operational launchers, while the remainder are earmarked for new missiles under development. The study estimates that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 warheads and could have assembled up to 190. With additional weapon systems in the pipeline, the stockpile is expected to grow further.
The FAS assessment cites figures from the International Panel on Fissile Materials, which estimated that India had produced approximately 730 kg of weapon-grade plutonium, with an uncertainty of about 170 kg, as of the beginning of 2026. Assuming about four kilograms of plutonium per warhead, that quantity would theoretically support between 140 and 225 warheads.
The study notes several caveats. India's 1998 nuclear tests reliably validated a fission design, but its progress on boosted fission and thermonuclear designs remains uncertain. It is also unlikely that all of the country's plutonium has been used for warheads, with some possibly held in reserve.
The size of the arsenal is further shaped by the number and types of launchers available to deliver the weapons, since India is unlikely to produce significantly more warheads than its delivery systems can fire.
The assessment notes that India has continued to modernise its nuclear forces, fielding several new weapon systems in recent years and developing others to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems and sea-based platforms.
India has adhered to a no-first-use doctrine since the Pokhran-II tests in 1998. The government recently told Parliament that the country remains committed to credible minimum deterrence and a posture of no first use of nuclear weapons.