Shrinking US Lobbying Footprint Leaves India Exposed to Russia Sanctions Act

A new US law that empowers President Donald Trump to levy tariffs of up to 100% on the largest importers of Russian energy has thrown a spotlight on the narrowing scope of India's engagement with Washington, where its paid congressional operation has shrunk from a network of firms to a single account.

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 names India among the top five importers of Russian energy, making it a potential target of the tariff authority. The measure advanced through Congress after a lobbying push by Ukraine helped it clear the House on the final day of session in September, following Senate passage in mid-August.

A Thinning Presence on the Hill

Until early 2025, India retained Cornerstone Government Affairs, whose records point to sustained Senate and House engagement on defence matters. BGR Government Affairs separately tracked key bills, statements and discussions concerning India in Congress while lobbying members and staff on specific legislation. Both engagements have since ended — Cornerstone's in early 2025 and BGR's in December — leaving Mercury Public Affairs as the sole firm working the Hill, with a broad approach that lacks issue or bill-level focus.

Executive-branch engagement has also contracted, with India terminating its contract with SHW Partners in June 2026. The result, the account suggests, was a shortage of allies when India sought to frame its Russian energy imports as a necessity forced by the Iran war rather than a policy choice. By the time the bill re-emerged after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, India lacked the bill-level lobbying capacity, public image and political capital to secure an exemption.

How Other Countries Fared

The act targets the top five importers of Russian energy. Besides India, these include China, Slovakia, Azerbaijan and Hungary for crude, and China, France, Japan, Hungary and Belgium for gas. Tariffs on China appear unlikely given US reliance on Beijing's rare earths. Hungary, France, Japan and Belgium are likely to be carved out of the gas tariffs, as the act exempts countries accounting for less than 15% of Russia's gas exports that are reducing them.

Hungary had already secured a one-year exemption from the Trump administration in November 2025 for the Druzhba and TurkStream pipelines. Japan's Sakhalin-2 exemption was extended until December 18, 2026, giving Tokyo time to engage the executive and a buffer to approach Congress when it reconvenes on November 9 after the mid-term recess. South Korea used a general 30-day US waiver issued in March, and its embassy later secured assurances that non-dollar payments for Russian naphtha would not trigger secondary sanctions.

A Narrow Window

The act gives target countries a 30-day buffer to reduce imports. The House has adjourned until after the elections on November 3, and the Senate is due to begin its own recess on October 2. Neither chamber will be sitting when the first duty falls due in mid-October, leaving India less than two weeks to engage members while negotiating in parallel with the executive, which determines waivers. Congressional support is also expected to matter most after the first 180-day reassessment, when the US Trade Representative is tasked with re-evaluating the status of target countries on a recurring basis.