Indonesia Braces for Delayed Wet Season, Crop Harvests at Risk

Indonesia's weather agency has forecast a shorter-than-usual rainy season beginning in November, a delay from the previously expected October start, with potential consequences for the country's agricultural output.

About 61% of Indonesia's land area will see the wet season arrive late, the agency's chief, Teuku Faisal Fathani, said at a press conference. The season is expected to peak across most of the archipelago in December.

The delay follows an extended dry spell that fuelled Indonesia's most severe wildfires in 11 years, driven by a "super El Niño" pattern that pushed up temperatures. An agency official, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, said El Niño was still exerting a strong influence in September. The pattern is projected to persist until the first quarter of 2027, though its effects are expected to ease once the wet season sets in.

The agency has urged the agriculture sector to adjust planting calendars and select crop varieties with shorter growing cycles to reduce weather-related risks.

Delayed harvests ahead

The late onset of rains could push back harvests for several key crops next year, with yields already weakened by El Niño.

Cocoa farmers have recorded a drop of up to 15% in bean production during the peak harvest months of August and September compared with June, according to Arif Zamroni, chairman of the Indonesian cocoa farmers group APKAI. Growers resorted to truck-delivered water to irrigate their plants, he said. While yields may recover next year, cocoa harvests are expected to be delayed.

Sugarcane farmers are also likely to see a late harvest, as planting typically begins with the arrival of the rainy season, said Soemitro Samadikoen, chairperson of the Indonesian smallholder sugarcane farmers association APTRI. Under normal conditions, planting starts between September and October. Soemitro warned that the shorter rain period would affect next year's yields, noting that plant growth would fall short of expectations without adequate water in the early stages. Sugarcane output has already been hit by drought and wildfires this year, with APTRI estimating a 25% decline in average production.

Rice output could fall by 10% next year, according to Zulharman Djusman, an official with the rice farmers group KTNA, who noted that roughly 30% of Indonesia's paddy fields lack irrigation infrastructure and are vulnerable to drought.

Palm oil, Indonesia's leading agricultural export, is expected to see output decline by between 2% and 8% in 2027 as a result of this year's drought, according to a palm oil analyst at a global trading house.