Indonesia's July Exports Beat Forecasts, Trade Surplus Returns

Indonesia's exports grew 6.05% year-on-year in July to reach $26.22 billion, according to official data released on Tuesday. The figure comfortably surpassed the 3.36% expansion predicted by economists in a poll.

Imports during the month climbed 27.02%, also above the 24% forecast, resulting in a narrow trade surplus of $0.13 billion — the first positive balance in three months.

The export uptick was driven primarily by manufactured goods, including basic chemical products, refined nickel, and aluminium. Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, palm oil, and nickel, has benefited from firmer prices for several of its key commodities this year, some of which have been influenced by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Despite elevated global crude prices, Indonesia's oil and gas exports have declined as the government has directed contractors to prioritise domestic supply.

Separately, the statistics bureau reported that annual inflation in August picked up to 3.19%, up from 2.88% in July and slightly above the 3.13% forecast. The reading remains within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food items, stood at 2.92%, higher than the anticipated 2.8% and July's 2.76%. The benign price pressures come amid increased subsidies aimed at keeping fuel prices unchanged.