Indonesia's wildfire emissions soar to world's highest amid El Niño

Indonesia is experiencing its most severe wildfire season in over a decade, with carbon emissions from the blazes now the highest in the world, according to data from the European Union's Copernicus climate monitoring service.

From September 1 to September 7, fire emissions from Indonesia reached 19.7 million metric tons, surpassing Russia and accounting for more than a third of the global total. The fire intensity exceeded 1,500 kg per square kilometer—over ten times Russia's level—with the worst concentrations in Kalimantan on Borneo and eastern Sumatra.

Authorities attribute the surge to a "super-El Niño" that has brought hotter, drier conditions, amplifying the usual seasonal fires. Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at Copernicus, noted that while fires are typical this time of year, El Niño significantly enhances their severity. "It's much drier, it's hotter, and when there's ignition, these fires burn in a far more extreme way," he said.

Emissions are 273% above the seasonal average, though still below the 21.7 million tons recorded during the same week in 2015, another strong El Niño year. The city of Pontianak in West Kalimantan has been particularly affected, with an air quality index of 394 on Wednesday—anything above 300 is considered hazardous.

Indonesia's environment ministry expressed concern over the hazardous readings but noted that satellite data "does not directly reflect air quality conditions in a specific area." Environmental group YKAN estimates that fires burned around 202,000 hectares from January to July, but August figures suggest a sharp increase to about 600,000 hectares, especially in Kalimantan, Sumatra, and South Papua.

Hotspot counts have also risen: 13,443 were recorded from August 1 to September 8, compared to 9,454 in the same period in 2015. Parrington warned that satellite sensors may underestimate peat fires, which can burn underground at low temperatures and escape detection.

Historical studies link Indonesia's 2015 fires to over 100,000 excess deaths across the region. With the season still early, Parrington expects emissions to keep climbing, potentially through October. "In two months we'll know how extreme this year has been, but the early indications are that it is at pace, if not slightly above those previous El Niño years," he said.