Iran's Leaders Fear Economic Strangulation Could Reignite Unrest
Iranian officials worry new US sanctions will worsen economic hardship and trigger nationwide protests, as inflation and unemployment bite.
Iran's leadership is projecting strength after months of conflict, but behind the scenes, there is deep anxiety that a fresh wave of American economic pressure could push a struggling population to the breaking point.
US President Donald Trump has promised to hit Iran hard economically, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that new measures, described as unprecedented, could be announced as early as next week. The specifics of these measures remain unclear, but the threat alone is adding to the uncertainty gripping the country.
Three Iranian officials and a dozen ordinary citizens describe a nation under immense strain. The war, which began with US and Israeli attacks in late February, has damaged factories, power plants, and transport networks, compounding pre-existing problems of high inflation, a weak currency, and crippling sanctions.
For many, the daily struggle is acute. A civil engineer from Isfahan, now unable to find work as construction projects stall, voiced a common fear: "If Trump imposes more sanctions, how will ordinary people survive?" A businessman in Bandar Abbas was forced to lay off ten employees after his import-export trade with Gulf states collapsed.
The economic data paints a grim picture. Iran's annual inflation hit 66% in July, with food prices more than doubling year-on-year. Rents have surged, and the purchasing power of the minimum wage has eroded sharply. Families report cutting meat from their diets, and a government employee in Yazd said his salary is "gone within days."
The greater danger for the clerical establishment may not be the economic pain itself, but the potential for it to ignite mass protests. The recent appointment of Hossein Taeb, a key figure in past crackdowns, to lead the Basij militia is seen as a clear signal of concern. In January, nationwide protests over economic hardships were brutally suppressed, and authorities have since intensified arrests of journalists and activists.
The US naval blockade has further strangled the economy, disrupting essential imports and forcing goods onto longer, costlier land routes. President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the squeeze, noting that income has fallen while problems have multiplied. Iran is also facing a gasoline shortfall, with domestic production unable to meet consumption demands.
With salaries evaporating and the future uncertain, many Iranians are simply trying to survive. One engineer who left Tehran for a cheaper province described the new reality: "It's all work or looking for work, or feeling anxious about not having enough work." The fear of renewed conflict and further economic punishment has made planning for the future nearly impossible.