Iran 'squeezing' global oil supply as US renews Hormuz strikes, expert warns

The United States has carried out its first military action against Iran in a month, striking rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The attack breaks a lull in a conflict that has now stretched beyond six months.

According to a spokesperson for the US Central Command, forces with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the strait. The US military had only recently completed clearing sea mines from the waterway's international shipping lanes.

The strait is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, normally carrying about 20% of the world's oil. Iran has leveraged its position there, striking vessels and deterring many from making the passage. Despite US efforts, Tehran retains enough drones and missiles to threaten shipping.

Oil markets reacted immediately, with US crude rising 1.8% to $84.94 a barrel and Brent crude climbing 1.9% to $89.79.

In response to the US strikes, Iran's state television showed what it said were ballistic missiles fired at US bases in Jordan. Jordan's armed forces reported intercepting eight missiles that entered its airspace early Monday.

Prof. Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, argues that Iran is deliberately targeting economic vulnerabilities. "It's squeezing the oil supply harder and harder in Hormuz and also in the Red Sea with its ally, the Houthis, going after Saudi Arabia. In other words, it's putting its foot on our economic throat," he said.

Pape contends that Iran is not merely retaliating but escalating, striking targets in Jordan and the UAE. "Iran believes it has escalation dominance," he said, adding that this undercuts any narrative of a quick US victory.

The conflict has also focused attention on Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export terminal. Strikes on this infrastructure, or a ground invasion, would severely curb Iran's revenue but could provoke heavier retaliation against Gulf Arab states and further destabilise the global economy.

Pape highlighted the limits of air and naval power alone, noting that ground operations would be costly, especially after months of what he called a "failed military campaign." He suggested that the cycle of conflict will only end when the US withdraws its forces from the region.