Iran War Cut More Diesel Supply Than Russia Conflict, Data Shows

Diesel prices have climbed to unprecedented levels, and US President Donald Trump has rejected the suggestion that the war with Iran, now nearly seven months old, is responsible. In a social media post this week, he attributed the global increase mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a position he has repeated since.

Estimates compiled from energy analytics firms Energy Aspects, Kpler and Vortexa point the other way. Between March and August, the Middle East lost an average of about 770,000 barrels a day of diesel supply compared with the same period in 2025 — more than twice the roughly 350,000-barrel-a-day loss of Russian supplies over the same months.

The wider energy market was upended this year after the United States and Israel attacked Tehran at the end of February, squeezing supply through the Strait of Hormuz and erasing an expected oil glut. Crude prices surged. While crude is again moving through Hormuz, shipments of refined products such as diesel remain more heavily restricted.

The Russian impact has grown in recent months following repeated attacks on refineries. In July and August, when Moscow imposed a diesel-exports ban, shipments fell by 615,000 barrels a day compared with the same months in 2025 — almost matching the Middle East losses. Crucially, those Russian losses came months into the Iran war, after global fuel and crude stockpiles had already been drawn down, leaving little cushion.

"In pure volumetric terms Iran is bigger," said Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA. But prices are set at the margin, he noted, and removing hundreds of thousands of additional barrels "turned a super tight market into a historically tight one."

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in an emailed statement on Friday that the President is right and that the Russia-Ukraine war has greatly contributed to record diesel prices, adding that the United States is the world's leading producer and exporter of oil under Trump's energy dominance agenda.

Russia is typically the world's second-largest diesel exporter, averaging around 930,000 barrels a day in 2024, according to Vortexa. Taken as a region, the Middle East ships more, exporting about 1.7 million barrels a day that year.

Trump said in his post that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said no deal had been finalised, and strikes continued this week. Russia's diesel export ban may be extended through October.

US and European refiners have been running near full capacity to meet global demand. European diesel futures more than doubled in the early months of the Iran war, and US contracts also soared. Prices cooled after a temporary US-Iran ceasefire, then climbed again as Middle East fighting re-escalated and Russian exports collapsed, surpassing the springtime highs. US diesel futures settled at an all-time record on Tuesday.

Analysts and traders say a Russia-Ukraine agreement to halt strikes might ease pressure but would not fully resolve the shortfall. "Iran conflict-related shortages are the biggest driver of the diesel and product shortage and price spike, though damage to Russian refineries is exacerbating these trends," said Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. A ceasefire leading to refinery repairs and the return of Russian products would ease some pressure, she added.