Six Months Into Iran War, US Shifts Focus to Strait of Hormuz

Six months after President Donald Trump launched the war with Iran, the conflict has evolved far beyond its initial forecast of a four-to-five-week campaign. While the president has repeatedly declared victory or suggested a deal is imminent, no clear off-ramp has emerged, and the administration's objectives have shifted significantly.

A June memorandum of understanding intended to chart a path toward ending the war has collapsed. With U.S. stockpiles of key weapons depleted, the administration has pivoted toward economic pressure on Tehran rather than additional military strikes.

The Strait of Hormuz

A primary goal now is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil once passed. The strait, largely closed since the war began, was not among Trump's original objectives. Its closure has driven up global fuel and fertilizer prices, creating economic and political pressure at home.

Trump has made conflicting statements about the strait's status, at times declaring it open and functioning, while also suggesting the U.S. could claim the waterway as American territory and impose tolls. He has also linked a potential deal to ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

Nuclear Program

Trump declared last June that the U.S. had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program. However, a key unresolved issue is the fate of approximately 970 pounds of enriched uranium, believed to be buried at three bombed sites. Trump has stated the U.S. would retrieve and destroy the material in coordination with Iran and the IAEA, but Tehran has not consented. The June memorandum included a pledge from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons and a commitment to dilute its stockpile, but details were left for future talks that have since stalled.

Missiles and Military

The administration's goal to "destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry" has seen mixed results. Trump's estimates of destroyed Iranian missiles have shifted from 90% in late March to 82% by mid-May. Despite these claims, Iran has continued to launch drone strikes on ships in the strait. As recently as July, U.S. Central Command was still striking Iranian military targets, including command centers and missile launch sites.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told lawmakers that Iran's defense industrial base has suffered "massive destruction" and that it will take years to rebuild. He also noted that while Iran retains some drone capabilities, it has lost its navy and relies on small craft to harass ships.

Allies and Proxies

Trump added the protection of Middle Eastern allies as an objective in March. The U.S. maintains thousands of troops in the region and has launched strikes in response to Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, Oman has faced Trump's ire over its negotiations with Iran regarding the strait, with the president threatening to bomb the country if it "gets in the way."

Early in the war, degrading Iran's proxy networks was a key goal. While the U.S. struck Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq, the focus has shifted to Israel's war in Lebanon against Hezbollah. A U.S.-mediated deal calls for Israeli forces to leave southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah's disarmament, but the militant group has refused direct talks and its leader has said it will not disarm.