Iran bets on attrition in Hormuz standoff, betting time is on its side

Iran's leadership is convinced that its strategy of controlling the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately force the United States to capitulate, betting that time and attrition are on its side. The strait, named in some accounts for a Zoroastrian deity destined to triumph after a 9,000-year struggle, has become the central front in a war Tehran believes it can win without such epic patience.

Iranian officials calculate that the US faces diminishing stockpiles of advanced missile interceptors, a deeply unpopular war at home, and the political pressure of high energy prices ahead of November's congressional elections. They also note that forcibly reopening the waterway would be costly and might require ground troops, while their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the conflict further.

Tehran's leverage is clear: it has repeatedly declared the strait an "unbreakable red line" and insists it will not return to being an open waterway. A deal with Oman to manage the strait is reportedly close, but it is conditioned on the US lifting its blockade. Even without direct negotiations, any such arrangement would require Washington's approval.

Analysts say Iran's goal extends beyond revenue. "More than income, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait," said Abdolreza Davari, a former adviser to ex-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Formal control would be a strategic victory, reshaping security rules in the Persian Gulf and setting a troubling precedent for global freedom of navigation.

However, the strategy carries significant risks. US and Israeli strikes have decimated Iran's military leadership and industrial base, while the blockade has choked oil exports and driven triple-digit food inflation. A currency crisis in December sparked mass protests, met with a bloody crackdown. Many, including moderates close to President Masoud Pezeshkian, fear the gamble may go too far.

Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has warned that the war has opened an "exceptional window for diplomacy" that must be seized soon, lest economic collapse trigger renewed unrest or aggression after the US elections. Others note that the conflict has already defied expectations, with Trump's initial prediction of a quick war giving way to a grinding stalemate.

For now, Tehran appears committed to its course. As one adviser put it, "Iran is going after the enemy's defeat — not an agreement." But analysts caution that resilience has limits, and a deal with Washington may eventually become unavoidable.