Iraq seeks higher OPEC quota, targets 8-10 million bpd in six years

Iraq has formally requested a higher production quota from OPEC, as part of an ambitious plan to nearly double its oil output over the next six years. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced on Friday that he had dispatched a delegation to Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, to press Baghdad's case for an increased allowance.

The delegation, led by Iraq's oil and finance ministers, left for Riyadh on the same day, according to al-Zaidi, who spoke at the Baghdad Dialog policy conference. Iraq currently produces around 4 million barrels per day (bpd), a level that predates the outbreak of the Iran war.

Iraq has been among the hardest-hit producers by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that before the conflict carried roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. The blockade followed U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, which escalated into a regional conflict. Despite two ceasefire deals between Washington and Tehran in April and June, traffic in the strait remains far below pre-war levels, and ships continue to face attacks.

To reduce its dependence on Hormuz, Iraq is working to expand exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port and is also planning new pipelines to Syria's Baniyas port and Jordan's Aqaba port. The Baniyas route, which would take about four years to build and cost at least $15 billion, is seen as a key hedge against future disruptions, according to sources familiar with the matter. Iraq's only functioning export pipeline, the Iraq-Turkey line to Ceyhan, currently carries around 170,000 bpd.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has commissioned Texas-based consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton to independently assess the maximum sustainable capacities of most member countries, including Iraq. The findings are expected at the end of September, after which negotiations will begin on new production baselines for 2027. These talks are often contentious, as higher baselines typically translate into larger output allowances, giving countries a strong incentive to lobby for more generous assessments.