Italy's Young Voters Drift Left, Posing Risk for Meloni
Polling shows just 25% of Italians under 35 approve of Meloni's government, a trend analysts say could prove decisive in the 2027 election.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition is facing a significant credibility gap with Italy's youngest voters, a trend that could reshape the country's political landscape ahead of the 2027 national election. Recent polling data indicates that only 25% of Italians aged 18 to 34 approve of the government's performance, a stark contrast to the 35% approval rating seen across the general population.
According to analysts, the ruling rightist bloc—comprising Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia—now commands less than 30% of the vote among under-35s. In comparison, the centre-left opposition, led by the Democratic Party alongside the 5-Star Movement and the Left-Green Alliance, attracts nearly half of that demographic's support. This marks a sharp reversal from 2023, when Meloni's party alone enjoyed similar levels of youth backing as the entire coalition does today.
Political observers attribute this disaffection to a lack of substantive economic reforms. Italy continues to post the lowest employment rate for 15- to 24-year-olds in the euro zone, and education spending remains below the bloc's average. The Bank of Italy notes that a young German graduate earns, on average, 80% more than an Italian counterpart, prompting tens of thousands of young Italians to emigrate annually.
The government's focus on law-and-order measures has also alienated younger citizens. Policies targeting rave parties, light cannabis production, and juvenile crime have been met with widespread student protests, including a large 'No Meloni Day' march last November. A recent bill proposes that minors aged 14 to 17 be considered fully responsible for crimes unless proven otherwise, a reversal of current legal standards. This comes after a 2023 decree already led to a 50% increase in the juvenile prison population.
Meloni's camp also faces competition from the far-right. The National Future party, founded by former general Roberto Vannacci, is polling at around 7%, drawing support from anti-immigrant urban youths with its pledge to repatriate migrants.
The potential power of the youth vote was demonstrated in a March referendum on judicial reform, where 67% of under-35s turned out, with 60% rejecting the proposal. This has led analysts to suggest that if young voters maintain this engagement, they could be decisive in the upcoming election, a prospect that poses a serious challenge to the incumbent government.