Kazakhstan trims 2026 oil output goal after CPC drone attacks

Kazakhstan has revised its 2026 oil production target downward by two million metric tons, citing Ukrainian drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route, Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov announced on Tuesday.

The new target stands at 96 million tons, down from the earlier 98 million ton plan. The CPC pipeline, which moves roughly 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, has faced repeated drone strikes in recent months.

"The oil production plan will be adjusted due to the attacks on the CPC... due to the attacks in January and the ongoing attacks in June and July, we lost approximately 3.5 million tons," Akkenzhenov told journalists in Astana.

Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest economy, supplies about 2% of global daily oil but remains heavily dependent on the CPC route. Alternative export paths through China or across the Caspian to Azerbaijan and Turkey are constrained by capacity limits.

Despite the disruptions, the minister confirmed that oil exports through the CPC are currently operating normally. He also noted that planned maintenance at the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field is scheduled for mid-September, with expected production losses of 400,000 to 450,000 tons.

In a related development, Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan's Kondensat refinery near the Russian border will process Russian crude, with 70% of refined products shipped back to Russia. Small volumes of Kazakh petroleum products have already been delivered to Russia, he added.

Russia has been grappling with fuel shortages as Ukraine has escalated drone attacks on its refining infrastructure. Kazakhstan has sought to maintain balanced ties with both Moscow and Kyiv, backing Ukraine's territorial integrity while condemning attacks on the CPC. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has publicly urged both leaders to pursue peace talks.