Kerala Braces for Rain Shortfall as Monsoon Deficit Nears 22%
Kerala's southwest monsoon rainfall is 22% below normal, with September forecast to add to the deficit, potentially leading to early summer-like conditions.
Kerala is on course for a deficient southwest monsoon this year, with rainfall already 22% below normal after the first three months of the season. The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) outlook for September predicts below-normal precipitation, suggesting the shortfall will likely widen as the four-month rainy season draws to a close.
Data from June 1 to September 1 shows the state received 1,368 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1,759 mm. Eight of Kerala's 14 districts are facing deficient rains, with Wayanad and Idukki being the most affected, recording deficits of 51% and 44% respectively. These districts host a significant portion of the state's hydroelectric reservoirs, making the prolonged dry spell a potential concern for water and power supply.
Neetha K. Gopal, Director of IMD Thiruvananthapuram, noted that prevailing atmospheric conditions offer little scope for a significant revival of rainfall activity in September, apart from isolated light showers in some areas. The strengthening El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), both known to suppress monsoon activity, could also impact the upcoming northeast monsoon, though a definitive assessment is still premature.
Meanwhile, conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from northwestern India. The cessation of rainfall over western parts of the region for five consecutive days, coupled with reduced moisture and the development of anticyclonic circulation, marks the beginning of the retreat phase. During this period, southern Kerala could still experience isolated heavy showers if weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal.
Typically, Kerala's monsoon is bolstered by westerly winds reinforced by weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, along with an active offshore trough along the West Coast. However, none of these key rain-enhancing factors are currently in place, leaving the state with little prospect of a significant recovery in the remaining weeks of the season.