Lula's Runoff Lead Narrows Against Flavio Bolsonaro in New Brazil Poll
A new CNT/MDA poll shows Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro 48% to 39.1% in a runoff, down from a wider June margin.
Brazil's presidential race is tightening as the October general election approaches, according to a fresh CNT/MDA opinion poll released on Tuesday. The survey indicates that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would secure 48.0% of the vote in a potential second-round runoff against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who would receive 39.1%.
The figures mark a narrowing of Lula's advantage compared to a June survey, where he led with 49.3% against Bolsonaro's 36.8%. The shift suggests a more competitive contest in the final stretch of the campaign.
In a first-round scenario, Lula remains the frontrunner with 42.4% of the vote, virtually unchanged from the previous poll. Flavio Bolsonaro follows with 28.7%, trailed by Ronaldo Caiado at 4.0%, Romeu Zema at 3.3%, and Renan Santos at 2.8%.
Brazilian electoral rules require a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to win outright; otherwise, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
The CNT/MDA poll surveyed 2,002 people across 140 municipalities between August 5 and 9. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points in either direction.