Lula Edges Ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in New BTG/Nexus Poll
A new BTG Pactual/Nexus poll puts Lula at 47% to Flavio Bolsonaro's 46% in a simulated runoff, reversing last week's narrow lead for the senator.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has regained a slim advantage over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical runoff, according to a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday. The race remains statistically tied.
In the runoff scenario, Lula would take 47% of voter support against 46% for Bolsonaro. A September 8 survey had shown Bolsonaro ahead by 46% to 45%, the first time he had led since March. That earlier lead had lifted Brazilian assets, as the elder son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is seen as more market-friendly.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42%, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%. Augusto Cury stands at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 5% and Renan Santos at 2%. The previous first-round poll had Lula at 39%, Bolsonaro at 35% and Cury at 9%.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the top two contenders will face off in a runoff on October 25.
Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 11 to 13. The poll carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.