Maharashtra's Rain Deficit Masks Sharp Regional Divide as Marathwada Wilts

Maharashtra's monsoon shortfall this year is not dramatically worse than that of several other states, but the distress is concentrated in a handful of districts where rainfall has been barely half of normal. The state has recorded an 18% deficit, against a national deficit of 13%, and several states that have also seen floods this season have logged steeper shortfalls.

What sets Maharashtra apart is the wide variation within its borders. Marathwada and Vidarbha, the state's traditionally drought-prone rain-shadow regions, have received scanty rainfall. Marathwada's deficit stands at 38%, while Vidarbha is 27% short.

The sharpest shortfall is in seven districts — Solapur, Dharashiv, Latur, Hingoli, Jalna, Beed and parts of Nanded, which lie away from the Godavari river — where rainfall has been only around 50% of normal. All except Solapur fall in Marathwada. Vidarbha is somewhat better placed, and western Maharashtra, the sugarcane and onion belt, is relatively comfortable. Nashik, known for onion cultivation, has received 37% excess rainfall so far.

Traders and processors expect the soyabean yield in Marathwada to be 40-50% of normal and 60-70% of normal in Vidarbha. The crop will begin arriving in mandis in about a fortnight, close to Navratri. Prices in Latur are hovering around Rs 5,600-5,700 per quintal, near the government's MSP of Rs 5,705. A good yield expected in Madhya Pradesh is likely to offset Maharashtra's production losses for soyabean.

The outlook is more worrying for arhar or tur, a longer-duration crop of 160-180 days against 80-90 days for soyabean. Arhar will enter flowering around the third week of October, with pod-filling beginning in the first week of November, and harvesting running from late November into early December. With rainfall expected to stay sparse as El Nino strengthens, the crop could face terminal moisture stress. Arhar prices in Latur are already at Rs 9,000-9,200 per quintal, well above the MSP of Rs 8,450, suggesting the market is pricing in a shortfall. Chana is quoting at about Rs 7,200 per quintal against an MSP of Rs 5,875.

The gravest concern may lie in the coming rabi season. The rainfall deficit has left little moisture in the soil, and reservoirs and borewells are likely to be depleted, which could deter farmers from sowing rabi crops such as chana and jowar.