Energy security steps could offset 35-70% of Hormuz oil flows by 2030: McKinsey

Energy security measures already in motion or under discussion could offset between 35 and 70 per cent of the oil volumes that once moved through the Strait of Hormuz, should the region face another major disruption by 2030, a McKinsey Global Institute report has said.

The institute cautioned that the range is an illustration rather than a forecast, and that its upper end hinges on how many of the projects discussed since the 2026 crisis are actually carried through. Implementation, it noted, takes both time and money and cannot be taken for granted.

The measures assessed include faster electrification, the development of alternative oil and gas supplies, bypass pipelines, reworked trade flows, larger inventories, demand management and expanded clean energy.

According to the report, the current energy system has absorbed much of the disruption so far through temporary buffers, bypass pipelines and shifts in global trade. About 21 million barrels per day of crude and refined products passed through the Strait in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Some oil continued to move through the waterway, while inventory adjustments, bypass routes, higher supply from outside the Gulf and weaker demand helped narrow the supply-demand gap. The report warned, however, that existing buffers are coming under strain, noting that two-thirds of energy trade passes through maritime chokepoints and one-third crosses geopolitical lines.

Bypass pipelines are projected to account for the largest share of the potential offset by 2030. These routes would not necessarily displace Gulf oil under normal conditions; instead, they would create optionality to flows through the Strait itself in the event of a shock by offering alternative routes and extra capacity.

For the longer term, the report argued that energy security will require a mix of approaches rather than dependence on any single fix. Bringing firms closer to best energy-efficiency practices could lower industrial energy costs by as much as USD 600 billion a year.

Every option, the report said, has limitations and ceilings, but there remains considerable room to manoeuvre. Energy security, it added, comes less from eliminating dependence than from building layers of optionality and diversification — more sources, more routes, more buffers and more alternatives for energy itself.