Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Votes as Merz's Future Hangs in the Balance

Voters in the eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania go to the polls on Sunday in an election that could shape the political future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leading in the latest surveys.

The vote coincides with a state election in the capital, Berlin. The AfD's recent first-ever victory in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt has unsettled Germany's consensus-driven political landscape and raised the prospect of a far-right win at the federal level in 2029.

National polling currently places the AfD at 27-29%, ahead of Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) at 18-20%.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, an INSA poll put the AfD at 37%, the Social Democrats (SPD) at 35%, the Left Party at 10%, the Greens at 5% and the BSW at 3%, below the threshold for entering parliament. The CDU stood at just 7%.

The other parties' hopes of keeping the AfD out of power rest largely on the popularity of SPD state premier Manuela Schwesig, 52, whose personal approval ratings exceed 60%. She leads a coalition with the Left Party.

"It is, first and foremost, the Schwesig brand," said Wolfgang Muno, a political science professor at Rostock University, describing her as the state's best-known politician. He said she had successfully distanced herself from Merz's government in Berlin, where the SPD is the junior coalition partner.

Schwesig has been a sharp critic of Merz, urging more action on fuel prices and accusing him of failing to connect with voters facing rising living costs. "The Chancellor doesn't really give people the impression that he sees and understands their problems," she told journalists in Rostock. "He simply ignores this problem."

Merz's approval ratings have fallen to as low as 14% nationally and to single digits in the eastern states, as promised reforms have yet to deliver results and economic uncertainty has deepened. A weekend INSA poll found 78% of respondents, including a majority of his own party's supporters, no longer see him as the right person for the chancellorship.

Senior CDU leaders have so far stood behind Merz, wary that replacing him would jeopardise the reform agenda without addressing the underlying economic problems. German media have speculated for weeks about his future, with expectations widespread that another far-right victory could cost him his job.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which has one of Germany's lowest shares of immigrants, faces a shortage of qualified workers, and its health and aged care systems depend heavily on foreign staff. The AfD's pledges to restrict immigration and restore ties with Moscow to regain access to cheap Russian energy have resonated in the formerly communist east.

"There's a great deal of momentum building up again," the AfD's lead candidate, Leif-Erik Holm, told reporters last week. "The Chancellor is already completely out of his depth, and you feel at any moment that he might resign."

The state's shipbuilding sector, boosted by Germany's military rebuilding drive, and a flourishing tourism industry have helped revive an economy crushed after reunification. But sluggish growth and surging petrol prices weigh heavily in a largely rural state where many depend on cars.

Holm has struck a more moderate tone than other party figures, including co-leader Alice Weidel, saying he welcomes foreigners with jobs and avoiding culture-war issues. Even so, the mainstream parties' "firewall" policy means he is unlikely to find a coalition partner. He said polls had underestimated the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, where turnout approached 80%, and predicted a similar effect on Sunday.