Meloni Projects 1% Growth for Italy in 2026, Matching Euro Zone

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said she expects the country's economy to expand by 1% in 2026, a pace that would match — or possibly exceed — that of the wider euro zone.

In an interview with the newspaper Il Foglio, Meloni pointed to economic data from the first six months of the year as evidence that the outlook has improved. "The Italian economy is holding up well, and data from the first six months of the year could point to 2026 growth of 1%, in line with, if not above, that of the euro zone," she said.

The projection is more optimistic than the 0.6% growth forecast her government issued in April. It also sits above the 0.9% estimate published last month by the budget watchdog UPB.

Official figures show Italian gross domestic product rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2026 and 0.2% in the second quarter. So-called "acquired growth" — the annual expansion already locked in even if output stays flat for the rest of the year — stood at 0.8% at the end of June.

Meloni, however, acknowledged that Italy has long found it difficult to sustain steady growth. She attributed the problem partly to high energy costs and weak productivity. "We are working to address these issues, but the results of those efforts will only become visible over the medium term," she said.

The Italian economy grew 0.5% in 2025 and has not exceeded 1% in the past three years, despite receiving tens of billions of euros in COVID-19 recovery funds from the European Union.