Merz Vows to Stay On After CDU Suffers Twin State Election Defeats

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is battling to steady his position and keep his reform agenda on course after voters handed his party two more defeats, including its first-ever ejection from a state legislature.

Speaking minutes after polling closed on Sunday in regional elections in Berlin and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural eastern region on the Baltic coast, Merz said he would stay on and press ahead with reforms to Germany, Europe's largest economy.

The final results underscored the scale of the setback in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which Merz himself described as a "disaster." His centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) finished just below the 5 percent threshold needed to retain seats in the regional parliament — the first such failure in 77 years of the modern federal republic — after losing more than half its support.

In Berlin, the CDU slipped to second place behind the Left Party, which is now in pole position to lead the next city government, though Merz's party could still retain control of city hall depending on how coalition talks unfold.

Neither contest was fought on terrain naturally favourable to the CDU. Its 2023 victory in Berlin was its only win in the capital in a quarter of a century, and the party was already weak in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. But the manner of the defeat in the eastern state adds to the headwinds facing Merz, following a stinging loss to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) two weeks earlier in Saxony-Anhalt, another formerly communist eastern region. That result damaged his authority and triggered speculation about his replacement.

The AfD emerged as the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with the centre-left Social Democrats — the junior partner in Merz's national governing coalition — close behind after a campaign built around state governor Manuela Schwesig as a bulwark against the far right. That polarisation squeezed other mainstream parties, including the CDU.

Political analyst Albrecht von Lucke said the situation was especially difficult in Berlin, where "no one really knows where things are headed." He noted that the Left Party was entering parliament for the first time and warned that the CDU risked becoming a splinter party in the east. "The fact that the AfD is dominating the conservative side to such an extent is a tremendous warning sign," he said.

Von Lucke also pointed to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a possible source of hope, saying Schwesig had shown it was possible to hold one's ground even against a greatly strengthened AfD.

He said Merz had stepped in front of the cameras to take the bull by the horns, delivering a clear address to the government with a dual message: a desire to remain chancellor and push through reforms, and a determination to retain the party leadership. That move, von Lucke added, headed off ambitions within Merz's own party.

Still, the analyst cautioned that the late blow in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and fears among other state chapters that the decline will continue, would further fuel unrest within the CDU. The big question, he said, is whether the chancellor can regain breathing room even as he pursues tough reforms that are unlikely to win him much favour.