Minnesota GOP Sees Fraud Scandal as Path Back to Statewide Relevance

Twenty years have passed since a Republican last won a statewide race in Minnesota, but party leaders believe a sweeping fraud scandal in state government could finally break that streak. The optimism grew after Tuesday's primary, when former sportscaster Michele Tafoya secured the U.S. Senate nomination and state House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the gubernatorial primary. Both defeated rivals that some GOP strategists considered too extreme for the state's left-of-center electorate.

The new ticket quickly turned to attacking Democrats over the fraud, which has led to dozens of convictions and the theft of hundreds of millions of dollars meant for food, shelter, healthcare, and childcare programs. Tafoya said the scandal has exposed the consequences of long-running Democratic control and is energizing voters in a fresh way.

Republicans acknowledge they face headwinds nationally, with President Donald Trump's unpopularity and voter concerns about the economy. But Minnesota offers one of the few offensive opportunities in the fight for the Senate, where most competitive races are in Republican-held states that Trump won easily.

Democrats, meanwhile, are rallying behind Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, who emerged from a costly primary. Republicans see her as vulnerable on the fraud issue, while Demuth will face Senator Amy Klobuchar, a proven statewide winner.

The state is not as deeply blue as the GOP's losing streak suggests. Trump lost Minnesota by just 1.5 points in 2016, and the Legislature is nearly evenly split, with a tied House and a Republican speaker under a power-sharing deal.

Republican strategist Amy Frederiksen said the party has struggled to field strong candidates, but the fraud backlash gives them a chance to reach new voters. Republicans argue Democratic leaders should have caught the fraud, which involved faked clients and billing for services never provided. The outcry contributed to Governor Tim Walz's decision to drop his reelection bid.

Brian McClung, a former aide to Governor Tim Pawlenty, said Republicans can argue that replacing Walz with another Democrat is not enough. But winning converts remains difficult, especially with Democrats energized by last winter's immigration enforcement operation in the Minneapolis area, which led to tense and deadly confrontations.

Tafoya, a well-known NFL sideline reporter, has drawn support from national Republicans. Her support for abortion rights up to 12 weeks may help her in the general election, though Democrats are already planning to tie her to Trump. Flanagan has accused Republicans of hypocrisy, pointing to Trump's own ethical issues, and vowed not to give Trump another loyal ally in the Senate.