Nebraska's 'blue dot' district faces a pivotal midterm test

In the heart of Republican Nebraska, Omaha's 2nd Congressional District stands as a political anomaly. While the state has voted for Donald Trump three times and hasn't backed a Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson, this district—often called the "blue dot"—supported Kamala Harris in 2024. Now, with the seat open, it has become one of the most closely watched races in the country.

The contest to replace retiring Rep. Don Bacon pits Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member, against Democratic activist Denise Powell. The district, home to over a million people, includes the increasingly Democratic-leaning city of Omaha and its more conservative suburbs. It is one of only eight districts nationwide that elected a Republican to the House while backing Harris for president.

Both candidates are campaigning at local events, but the shadow of the president looms large. Trump has endorsed Harding and is planning a major Republican midterm convention in Dallas. He has also been visiting competitive districts, despite facing low approval ratings and an unpopular war in Iran. Harding has welcomed the support, saying he has the full confidence of the White House and congressional leadership.

Powell, meanwhile, is focusing on local concerns. She asks voters what keeps them up at night, and the answer is often Trump. She points to Medicare cuts and economic struggles, arguing that the president's business dealings show poor choices while ordinary people suffer. She believes her message resonates even with some Republicans who want checks and balances.

The district's history is complex. While it has voted for Democrats in three of the last five presidential elections, a Democrat has won the House seat only once since 1994. Local activists are trying to change that. A couple who gained attention for spray-painting blue dots on lawn signs in 2024 now professionally produce "Blue Dot Wave" signs, while Harding's supporters have countered with red "Brinker Dot" signs.

Even some conservative voters are open to crossing party lines. A 90-year-old retired businessman who hosts a weekly political coffee estimates that as many as half of his attendees, many of whom are Trump voters, might support Powell. He noted that Harding's campaigning has been less visible.

Bacon, the outgoing representative, sometimes clashed with the White House, opposing tariffs and a controversial Gulf of Mexico renaming. The state's Republican Party chair calls Harding a "steady force" who appeals to moderates. Powell acknowledges Bacon's pragmatic leadership but argues that people are worse off now. As the campaign heats up, the question remains whether Trump's influence will be the deciding factor in this unique district.