Netanyahu's reelection hopes hinge on uniting a fractious far-right base
Israel's Netanyahu faces a threat to reelection not from rivals but from a divided far-right base, as small parties risk failing to enter parliament.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's path to another term in office is being complicated not by his political opponents, but by the very factions that support him. With an election scheduled for October 27, a cluster of small, hard-line parties are competing for the same voter base, raising the risk of splitting the vote and weakening the prime minister's chances of forming a coalition.
These parties include blocs led by Cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, whose personal rivalry has prevented them from re-forming the joint list they ran in the 2022 elections. Additional splinter groups, formed by former members of Netanyahu's Likud party and a retired general, are also courting the same ideological voters, differentiating themselves more by personality than policy.
The election is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly 17-year rule, a period marked by mass protests, the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, and subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Public opinion polls suggest broad dissatisfaction with the outgoing government's performance.
Israel's proportional representation system sets a low electoral threshold of 3.25 percent, meaning even small parties can win seats. However, if a party fails to cross this line, its votes are discarded. This dynamic proved costly for Netanyahu in the 2021 election and beneficial in 2022 when rivalries among his opponents fragmented the opposition.
Netanyahu has been publicly urging his allies to consolidate into larger blocs before the September 8 deadline to finalize candidate lists. In a recent interview with Channel 14, he warned that division would lead to defeat, while unity would bring victory. He also claimed that only he could defeat Hamas and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, warning that a win for his opponents would be disastrous.
In a small boost for the prime minister, one minor party agreed on Wednesday to merge with Smotrich's list. However, the decision of the remaining factions in the coming days could ultimately determine whether Netanyahu secures another term or sees his long political reign come to an end.