Nigeria's 2026 election: Tinubu's second-term bid puts a decade of APC rule on trial

As Nigeria's election campaign officially begins, President Bola Tinubu's bid for a second term is colliding with a difficult question: are citizens better off after more than a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress (APC)?

The answer could define the contest against challengers Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who are tapping into widespread frustration over the economy and security. The opposition argues that nearly 12 years of APC governance have left Africa's most populous nation poorer, more indebted, and no safer than in 2015.

Tinubu, often referred to as "T-Pain" by Nigerians struggling with rising costs, has moved quickly on economic policy. He scrapped a costly fuel subsidy and devalued the naira twice. These reforms were long sought by investors and international lenders, but they also triggered a sharp cost-of-living crisis, sparking protests across the country.

The president defends the measures as necessary to fix years of state intervention, pointing to higher revenues and renewed investor interest as proof of progress. Yet many voters are more focused on the price of food than on macroeconomic indicators.

At Abuja's Garki market, butcher Abdullahi Sani described the impact. "Five years ago, I used to sell six goats a day. Now I struggle to sell two, sometimes just one," he said. "It is difficult to make a profit and feed my family."

The gap between improving economic data and worsening household finances is likely to dominate the campaign. Tinubu's task is made harder by the legacy of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, whose interventionist policies included import curbs, currency controls, and a fuel subsidy that cost $10 billion in 2022 alone.

World Bank data shows GDP per capita has fallen 53% since 2015, to $1,224. Public debt has ballooned more than twelvefold to 159.35 trillion naira by March 2026, with debt-service costs forecast at $11.6 billion this year—nearly half of projected revenue.

Security is another major liability. While the government says military operations have curbed attacks, Amnesty International reports at least 10,217 people killed by armed groups and around 15 mass abductions of schoolchildren since Tinubu took office. Banditry in the northwest, separatist unrest in the southeast, and kidnappings for ransom remain widespread.

"For ordinary Nigerians, this election is fundamentally about survival, security... whether families can afford food, whether farmers can safely return to their farms," said Auwal Musa Rafsanjani of CISLAC/Transparency International Nigeria.

Analysts note that voter frustration is high, with nearly 80% of Nigerians saying the country is heading in the wrong direction. However, a divided opposition may still favour the incumbent. "The data tells us the odds are against Tinubu and the only way back is low voter turnout on election day," said Cheta Nwanze of SBM Intelligence. "However, the opposition remains disunited, which historically have favoured the incumbent."