Nigeria's Tinubu faces 18 rivals as divided opposition opens campaign season

Nigeria officially opened its presidential campaign season on Wednesday, setting the stage for a January vote that pits incumbent President Bola Tinubu against a deeply fractured opposition field. The election, scheduled for January 16 alongside parliamentary polls, comes as Africa's most populous nation grapples with its worst economic crisis in a generation and persistent security failures.

Tinubu faces 18 challengers, though analysts expect the race to narrow to three main contenders: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former state governor Peter Obi — the two men Tinubu defeated in the 2023 election — alongside the president himself. Both opposition figures have run for the top office before, with Obi's youth-focused campaign in the last cycle significantly reshaping the political landscape.

A coalition formed in 2025 by opposition leaders to unseat Tinubu collapsed before it could gain traction. This fragmentation is widely seen as benefiting the incumbent. Historically, Nigerian ruling parties have fared better when opposition votes are split among multiple prominent candidates. In 2023, Tinubu won with one of the lowest vote shares ever recorded for an elected president, a sign of his limited popularity even in victory.

“Voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the administration’s handling of inflation, insecurity and unemployment but because the anti-incumbent vote is split, the president has the edge,” said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based risk advisory firm.

Tinubu has also consolidated political power through high-profile defections. Thirty-one of Nigeria's 36 state governors now belong to his ruling All Progressives Congress, a shift that has raised concerns about a creeping one-party state — a charge the government denies. Given that governors often command significant grassroots influence and are frequently accused of manipulating local election machinery, these defections could prove decisive.

The president's first term has been defined by bold but painful economic reforms. Shortly after his inauguration in May 2023, he ended the long-standing fuel subsidy and floated the naira, moves that pleased investors but triggered soaring inflation and widespread hardship. Security conditions have also deteriorated, with mass kidnappings and killings spreading to regions previously untouched by violence.

Despite widespread discontent, many voters see the opposition's inability to unite as a fatal flaw. “No matter how bad things are, Tinubu will still win because they are not working together,” said Juliet Onah, a resident of the capital Abuja, reflecting a sentiment that may shape the outcome of the January vote.