Novorossiysk crude loadings set to halve as drone strikes hit exports

Crude oil exports from Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk are on track to fall by more than half in August compared with July, following Ukrainian drone attacks that have disrupted loadings at the Sheskharis terminal, according to traders and shipping data.

Loadings from the port are expected to drop below 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) this month, down from around 800,000 bpd in July, two traders said.

Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure this year, targeting export ports and pipelines in an effort to reduce Moscow's oil-export revenue. The Sheskharis terminal is Russia's primary crude export hub on the Black Sea, handling Urals and Siberian Light grades, and also loads Kazakhstan's KEBCO blend.

Traders estimate Russian producers will load around 600,000 metric tons of crude from Novorossiysk in August, with Kazakh oil accounting for the remainder of the total 1.4 million tons.

Some Kazakh transit crude has been redirected from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga to Novorossiysk, as market participants believe Ukraine may avoid targeting vessels carrying non-Russian oil. Ukraine has pledged to halt strikes on tankers transporting non-Russian crude from Black Sea ports, though drones have previously hit cargoes linked to Kazakhstan, including CPC Blend exports at the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal.

Traders expect disruptions to Russian crude loadings from Novorossiysk to continue into September. "We don't expect the situation to ease next month, so likely we will see more Kazakh barrels in Novorossiysk," one trader said.

Beyond Novorossiysk, Russia exports crude from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, as well as the Far Eastern port of Kozmino.