Panama Canal to Cut Daily Ship Transits as El Niño Deepens Water Crisis

The Panama Canal is set to reduce the number of daily ship transits beginning in September, as authorities brace for an unusually early dry season and rainfall deficits linked to a powerful El Niño event.

The waterway, which handles roughly 5% of global maritime trade, typically accommodates between 36 and 38 vessels per day. Starting September 3, that number will drop to 34, and further to 32 from September 15. These are the most significant restrictions imposed since a severe drought in 2023 and 2024 forced sharp cutbacks.

Ricaurte Vásquez, the canal's administrator, said the dry season—normally expected to begin in December—could arrive at least a month early. He added that rainfall during the typically wet months of October and November is projected to be below normal.

Steve Paton of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute noted that rainfall in the canal watershed since April has reached only about two-thirds of the historical average and continues to trend downward. "The lake level will continue to drop and drop when it should be rising," he said, warning that lower water levels could restrict both the frequency of transits and the maximum draft, or size, of vessels allowed through.

The canal authority is working to conserve freshwater to sustain operations through a dry season that could last until April or May 2027. "The water we have—the water we hope to have and that we monitor day by day—is the water we are striving to preserve and use more effectively," Vásquez said.

Ships without confirmed reservations may face longer delays as the canal reorganizes auctions for transit slots. One auction this month reportedly reached a record $5.3 million for a September 1 passage, compared with typical prices of $50,000 to $100,000.

Paton said the current El Niño is expected to bring record-high Pacific temperatures and reduced rainfall, intensifying pressure on the canal's water reserves. He noted that scientists have never documented an event of this predicted magnitude, with temperature records already broken.