Trump tariffs cool Quebec's separatist fervour ahead of provincial vote

The US trade war has reshaped Quebec's political landscape. With a provincial election due by October 5, support for independence from Canada has dropped to roughly 30% — the lowest level in decades — as voters weigh the risks of separation against the threat posed by Washington.

The shift is visible on the ground. A steel factory near Montreal lost about a third of its US-bound orders for bolts and fasteners within a week of Washington imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian steel last June. The owner froze hiring, closed a regional plant, and cut dozens of jobs. An operations director said his own brother was among those laid off.

That economic anxiety has translated into political caution. Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose party leads in polls, has vowed not to hold a third independence referendum while Donald Trump remains US president. He said Quebec's political future "must not be hijacked by the upheaval of American politics."

The reluctance marks a reversal of historical patterns. Past economic downturns in Quebec often boosted separatist sentiment. This time, Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state and his tariff whiplash have stirred Canadian patriotism even in the province that has twice voted on secession.

Analysts say a PQ win would likely reflect frustration with the ruling party rather than a mandate for independence. The party has not held power in over a decade.

Trump is deeply unpopular in Quebec, which is among Canada's most progressive provinces. Polling from August shows only 10% of Quebecers view him favourably. His administration's criticism of the province's French-language requirements as a "trade irritant" has further alienated voters.

The economic toll is significant. Economists note Quebec is among the provinces hardest hit by tariffs due to its concentration in steel and aluminum. A March report projected Quebec's economy would grow about 1% this year, compared with over 2% for Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Some separatists argue independence remains essential. Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, pointed to Ottawa's decision to eliminate a tax that funds Canadian programming, which she said would cut support for French-language productions. "Canada is not capable of defending Quebec's interests," she said.

Others disagree. A fourth-generation dairy farmer with over 250 cows said Trump's policies have affected all of Canada, not just Quebec. "If I supported an independent Quebec, I would not want to talk about that policy now," he said.

A delayed referendum would ease pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney, who won a national election last year after promising tough negotiations with Trump. He also faces a separatist movement in Alberta, which has its own referendum scheduled for mid-October.

Former PQ interim leader Stéphane Bédard acknowledged the reality: "Postponing a referendum is unfortunately a choice we have to accept. Quebec is stronger than it's ever been, but the external factor of Trump has created a lot of insecurity."