Raw Sugar Hits Four-Month High as Global Supply Fears Mount

Raw sugar futures on ICE surged to a four-month high on Friday, extending a weekly rally as traders weighed crop risks in the European Union and Asia against expectations of a global supply deficit in the 2026/27 season.

By 1136 GMT, raw sugar was trading up 1.2% at 15.76 cents per pound, after touching a session peak of 15.84 cents — its strongest level in four months. The contract was on track for a weekly gain of 7.4%.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization flagged that persistent hot, dry weather in the EU could dent yields, while El Niño-related conditions may also curb production prospects in Asia. These factors have added to a tightening supply picture.

Dealers also pointed to tight supplies in India, the world's second-largest producer, where record domestic prices have raised the possibility of an early start to cane crushing. While an early crush could ease near-term tightness, traders cautioned it might also reduce overall yields.

In other soft commodities, white sugar rose 0.8% to $490.70 per metric ton, after peaking at $495.50 — its highest level in nearly a year.

Cocoa futures slipped on Friday, with London cocoa down 1.6% at £4,213 a ton, though the market remained set for a 3.6% weekly gain. New York cocoa fell 1.9% to $5,772 a ton. Dealers said the focus stayed on the 2026/27 production outlook, with an expected decline likely to create a more balanced market after a significant surplus in 2025/26.

Coffee was mixed: ICE arabica rose 1.2% to $3.2540 per pound but was on track for a 2% weekly loss, while robusta fell 1% to $3,752 a ton.