Republicans Pour Cash Into Red States as Midterm Anxiety Grows

Republicans are increasingly anxious about their prospects in November's midterm elections, with allied groups directing large sums into reliably conservative states and candidates working to separate themselves from unpopular White House policies.

From Texas and Ohio to Alaska and Iowa, campaigns are confronting an electorate frustrated by high fuel prices tied to an unpopular war and dissatisfied with the president. Although Republicans hold an unprecedented financial advantage that could influence close races, the overall mood is downcast as the election's final stretch approaches and the party tries to protect slim House and Senate majorities against visible Democratic enthusiasm.

"Everybody is tired. You see the poll numbers. Everybody is cranky about gas prices," said Jeanette Hoffman, a Republican strategist from New Jersey. "The party in power is playing defense. This is a referendum on the incumbents."

After pressure from endangered candidates in battleground states, groups aligned with President Donald Trump began releasing their stockpiled campaign funds earlier this month, joining Republican committees that have built a record war chest far larger than their Democratic counterparts'.

"Republicans have air superiority. House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have," said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

But the spending also reveals how much ground Republicans are defending. Three Trump-aligned groups — MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC — have spent more than $163 million on advertising and air time since Sept. 1. Nearly 40% of that, over $63 million, has gone to states and districts Trump won by 10 percentage points or more in 2024, according to an analysis of AdImpact data. That covers 12 House districts and three states with major Senate races.

In Texas, Republicans have spent nearly $107 million on ads and reservations since the start of the month to support scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico — nearly four times Democratic spending in a state Trump won by almost 14 points.

In Ohio, Republican spending to defend Sen. Jon Husted has exceeded $152 million, compared with $90 million for Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown, according to AdImpact.

Terry Casey, an Ohio Republican strategist, said both parties are "kind of sitting on pins and needles because of the national and economic circumstances." The outcome, he said, would hinge on whether Democrats can turn out voters.

States Trump won by wide margins — Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska — have become among the most competitive battlegrounds. The White House is even investing time in states long considered safe. Vice President JD Vance recently campaigned in Kansas for Sen. Roger Marshall, who faces Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton.

Hamilton, founder of the nation's largest United Methodist church, drew a large crowd at a Topeka coffee shop on Tuesday. "In all my 50, 60 years in politics, I've never seen a candidate that quite has the momentum going," said Jim Ploger, an 82-year-old longtime Democratic activist from Topeka who believes Hamilton offers the party "the best chance we've ever had" to win a Senate seat.

Vance has also visited Iowa, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina. Trump has been on the road as well, traveling to North Carolina after the party's midterm convention in Dallas to rally with Michael Whatley, his former national party chairman. Republicans are increasingly worried Whatley could lose his Senate race to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper.

Concerns also surround Georgia, where Rep. Mike Collins is trying to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Though Ossoff began the cycle as Republicans' top target, Collins has faced weeks of negative coverage over a House ethics investigation and his son-in-law's white nationalist views.

"I don't think anyone's expecting Collins to win," said Tim Waters, chairman of the Peach County Republican Party. "Do I like that? No, I don't like that. But it's just the facts."

In Texas, officials hope a late surge of cash will rescue Paxton. Sen. John Cornyn, who lost his primary to Paxton after Trump turned against him earlier this year, was less optimistic. "I think it's going to be very rough, lots of headwinds," he said. "Even in places like Texas, which are pretty red, we've got flawed candidates who I think are going to have a hard time."

Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said the party is focused on turnout and is aware of the historic pattern in which the party in power typically loses seats in midterms. "We have money to spend and we're not taking anything for granted this cycle," she said. "This is very high stakes, and it's unfortunate that other people feel glum and down. But we're doing everything we can to protect and expand our majorities so we're full steam ahead."

Party officials are more optimistic about races in Maine and New Hampshire, where Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024, and remain hopeful about Michigan, where Trump won by less than two points and former Rep. Mike Rogers faces progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

Some Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump even as he urges supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot. Rep. Tom Tiffany and Rep. John James, the party's gubernatorial nominees in Wisconsin and Michigan, both called for an end to the war in Iran. "War is terrible, and no one likes war," James told reporters.

Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, released an ad calling for the war's end. Standing in a grocery store, he criticized high prices and said the government should suspend gas taxes and stop diesel exports. "The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly," Rogers said. "Michigan families can't afford to wait."

In Iowa, where Republicans are defending the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, Rep. Ashley Hinson, locked in a tight race against Democrat Josh Turek, voiced similar frustrations. "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran," she wrote on social media. "These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end."

Hinson did not join two fellow Iowa Republicans in battleground districts — Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks — in voting with Democrats on a resolution meant to halt Trump's ability to continue military action without lawmakers' approval.

Perhaps the sharpest break came from Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, defending her seat in a competitive, majority-Hispanic South Florida district. Last week she released an ad filmed in front of the White House criticizing the president for going "too far" on immigration policy.

Others have removed references to Trump from their websites. The latest was Republican Byron Donalds, running for governor in Florida, who recently revamped his site to drop several prominent mentions of Trump and his endorsement.