Rouble slides past 86 per dollar as tax support fades

Russia's rouble weakened sharply on Thursday, losing more than 2% against both the U.S. dollar and China's yuan to reach multi-month lows. The decline came as support from month-end tax payments faded, while rising imports and softer oil prices continued to weigh on the currency.

On the Moscow Exchange, the rouble touched 12.879 against the yuan, its weakest level since February 2025. Against the dollar, it fell 2.3% to 86.30, the lowest since March, according to LSEG data.

August is on track to be the weakest month for the rouble this year. Analysts point to Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, which have pushed up imports of fuel and refinery repair equipment, increasing domestic demand for foreign currency.

Exporters had provided some support earlier in the week by selling foreign-currency revenue ahead of Friday's tax deadline. However, that support has now largely run its course. "Falling oil prices put pressure on the Russian currency, and most exporters had probably already sold a sufficient volume of foreign-currency earnings to pay taxes," analysts at Bank Saint Petersburg said in a note.

Oil prices had fallen for several consecutive days this week before ticking up on Thursday, as traders weighed signs of diplomatic progress involving Iran against lingering risks to Middle East supply.

Market participants expect the rouble's losing streak to continue. One broker at a major Russian bank said the currency could weaken to 88-89 per dollar in the near term. "The decline could accelerate in the first days of September," said Andrey Zatsepin, an analyst at Alor Broker.