Most Russian Black Sea grain terminals can restart quickly if attacks halt

Russia could bring most of its Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain terminal capacity back into operation relatively quickly if a ceasefire ends mutual attacks with Ukraine, according to an assessment of industry data.

The review of nine major grain terminals in the region, along with smaller facilities in the Sea of Azov and the Don river delta, found that about 80% of capacity could resume operations. The route handled up to 70% of Russia's grain exports before the attacks.

However, three terminals accounting for roughly one-fifth of grain-loading capacity in the area have suffered serious damage and could take months to repair.

Damage at key sites

One of Russia's three largest grain terminals, NKHP at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, was seriously damaged in an August 12 attack. The terminal has an annual capacity of 7.1 million metric tons, and repairs could take up to six months. A source at Novorossiysk said a conveyor gallery was completely destroyed and collapsed onto a road. Staff were sent home for six months, and the duration of the shutdown remains uncertain. The company has said repairs could take up to four months.

Damage at the other two Novorossiysk terminals, KSK and NZT, was minor, and both are ready to resume operations.

The other damaged facilities are ZTKT at the Black Sea port of Taman and a terminal in Taganrog on the Azov Sea. Both have halted operations, though the full extent of the damage could not be established. Together they have an annual capacity of 6.7 million tons. ZTKT, with a capacity of 5.5 million tons, was hit on July 30 and is unable to load grain, with no clear timeline for resuming operations.

Diplomatic efforts

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is leading an international effort by grain-importing countries to restore Black Sea grain trade, which has been stalled by attacks on ports and vessels in recent months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries were also involved.

The Kremlin acknowledged diplomatic contacts but said Russia was finding alternate export routes in the meantime.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and disruption to shipments has driven up global grain prices and renewed concerns about food security linked to the war in Ukraine.

The assessment found that terminals with combined capacity of about 53 million tons are currently idle because of security risks but could resume operations. Total grain terminal capacity in the region is about 67 million tons.