Russia Slashes Oil Output Forecast to 17-Year Low Amid War Pressures

Russia has sharply downgraded its oil production forecast for 2025, projecting the lowest output in 17 years, according to a draft government document. The revised outlook, expected to be finalized by the end of September, reflects the cumulative impact of the ongoing war with Ukraine, including Western sanctions, export bottlenecks, and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.

The base-case scenario sees crude and gas condensate production falling to 494.2 million tons (about 9.88 million barrels per day) this year — down 17.2 million tons from 2025 levels and the lowest since 2009. The forecast for 2026 through 2029 has also been trimmed by 16 to 20 million tons compared to the previous May outlook, with output expected to remain below 2025 levels through the end of the decade.

Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted refinery operations, triggering domestic fuel shortages and forcing Moscow to impose export bans on diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. As a result, fuel exports are projected to drop by 27.3 million tons this year to 98.5 million tons — 24.1 million tons below earlier estimates.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports are expected to rise to 244.7 million tons in 2025, up from 230.8 million tons last year, as Russia redirects supply primarily to China and India. However, exports are forecast to decline sharply after 2027, falling to 216.6 million tons by 2028-2029.